Ranking The Marvel Phase Three Movies By Box Office Potential

6. Black Panther

Prediction: $235-$265 million

Sixth place just seems right for this. It makes T’Challa the top dog among the debuting properties, which I think he can achieve. I’d argue he has the most name recognition of any of the characters to this point on our list, fans seem to be digging Chadwick Boseman in the lead role, and the concept art released for the costume looks awesome.

If this movie actually finishes in the range I have listed, that’ll put it well ahead of the first Captain America and Thor movies, but I think that’s reasonable given how much more cachet Marvel has now compared to 2011. I never would have dreamed ten years ago we’d even see a Black Panther solo movie, much less that it could reasonably make more money than Cap, but that just shows you how far Marvel has come in a short period of time.

One thing that could make me rate this one too highly: the lack of a good villain. There’s Klaw, I suppose, with his vibranium connections, but the Panther doesn’t have a deep or memorable rogues gallery. That might end up as a weakness.

5. Thor: Ragnarok

Prediction: $250-$300 million

Note that hitting my prediction would mean that the third Thor movie would earn significantly more than the first two installments, which is pretty rare for trilogies. The momentum of this franchise is also trending the wrong way, as most diehard fans seemed pretty underwhelmed with The Dark World.

Forget that. I think the moviegoing public is ready for a truly kick-ass flick starring the God of Thunder (and Loki), and this should be it. If Ragnarok sticks to its historic roots and tells a tale with the highest possible stakes, it’s got a chance to leave its predecessors far behind. I’m probably putting more faith in Marvel to deliver something they haven’t shown yet with this movie than with any of the others in Phase Three, but I have a good feeling about this.

To top it all off, it’s not like the Hiddlestoners are going anywhere. If anything, they’ll have three more years to multiply. Don’t doubt their might.

4. Captain America: Civil War

Prediction: $350-$450 million

I expect there to be a pretty sizable gap between Civil War and anything below it on this list. I’ve actually seen an article speculating that this could be the biggest movie of all time, which is silly to me, but it’s almost guaranteed to be huge.

Comics fans have understandable concerns about how the source material will adapt to film, but it’s worth repeating one more time: Marvel never does straight adaptations. All the general public needs to know is that Robert Downey Jr. is in it as Iron Man and that he and Cap will be at odds and you’ve already ensured yourself of a certain level of success.

The Russo brothers and the screenwriting team of Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely have earned the benefit of the doubt after The Winter Soldier, and this is going to be highly, highly anticipated as the leadoff movie in Phase Three. Big box office numbers are almost a given.