Ranking The Marvel Phase Three Movies By Box Office Potential

3. Avengers: Infinity War Part I

Prediction: $500-$650 million

This is, if anything, a conservative estimate. It’s actually less than the first Avengers movie made domestically at the low end, and if Avengers: Age of Ultron goes bonkers, this is going to look pretty foolish.

I just can’t help but think two things. One is that splitting the movie into two parts is undoubtedly the way to go from both a storytelling and financial perspective, as the two parts together will make much more than a single film. But I also suspect that will make the second part the real gold rush as people will know there’s more to the tale than is told in Part I.

On top of that, if the Avengers splinter in the wake of Age of Ultron and Civil War, we might not see the core team back together until Part II. The result will be that the first installment could end up being largely driven by the popularity of characters we haven’t seen on the big screen yet in 2014. That makes this too risky to rank any higher, though it’s still going to make a ton of money.

2. Guardians of the Galaxy 2

Prediction: $550 million-?

Let’s break this one down. The first movie just did $330 million with characters most people had never heard of and a director who wasn’t famous. It had definite connections to the larger MCU but no stunting with appearances by any of the Avengers, existing mostly off in its own little corner of space.

Chuck all that out the window for the sequel. Smart money says it’ll be cosmic action again with some revelations about the characters, but also with some more direct ties to everything else as the story of the Infinity Stones rounds into shape. It’s also quite possible we’ll see someone else helping the Guardians out — maybe the Hulk? New characters are also a shoe-in, as you could easily see Nova, Adam Warlock and others join the fray.

If you thought the marketing campaign for the first one was huge, Disney is going to make the build-up to the second film relentless, and Marvel is going to do everything possible to keep the Guardians in the minds of average fans over the next three years. Topping $550 million would be a huge leap from its predecessor, but it’s one this team of misfits can make with the way anticipation will be at a fever pitch.