Avengers: Infinity War — Early box office predictions

Avengers: Infinity War seems likely to smash records at the box office. Just how many of them, though?

For those who managed to view leaked footage of a trailer for the Russo Brothers helmed film, Avengers: Infinity War, from San Diego Comic-Con not to worry. The official trailer is here.

Before Infinity War, MCU fans and moviegoers alike have Black Panther to look forward to and following the huge ensemble film, Ant-Man and the Wasp afterward. All have been set release dates February 16^th, May 4^th and July 6^th, 2018 respectively.

Outside the Fox-distributed films, New Mutants and X-Men: Dark Phoenix, the filmmakers’ biggest competitor for Marvel Studios is Deadpool 2, which is set for release on 1^st June of that year. Even Star Wars Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, a production under Lucasfilm, set to come out in theaters December 15^th will be its greatest competitor to date.

The last Star Wars film, Rogue One, as part of the anthology series, opened with over $150 million and grossed over $1 billion. Star Wars: The Force Awakens opened with $247 million and grossed over $2 billion worldwide. Overall, Star Wars averages to approximately $170 million of its opening weekend.

In contrast, for the Avengers franchise, the original film, Marvel’s The Avengers grossed over $623 million domestic, $207 million in its opening weekend and a worldwide total of $1.5 billion. The last Joss Whedon directed sequel, Avengers: Age of Ultron earned on opening day $84.46 million and totaled at $191 million on its opening weekend. It grossed $1.4 billion worldwide, approx $100,000 behind its predecessor. On an average, both of these films’ opening weekends can open up to around $199 million.

As pundits at Collider have commented, they highlighted that what it is ultimately going to come down to is Infinity War versus Return of the Jedi. Both films are capable of opening to $200 million on their respective weekends and have crossed the billion-dollar threshold.

I do not think it will come down to the opening of a particular seasonal release date, but which film has more to lose. It also has to do with which film has to offer the most in product in terms of story, characters and mythos that can translate to the audiences better. While Infinity War is a culmination of ten years of Marvel Studios and its interconnected films in this summer blockbuster, Star Wars is a celebration of Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill) rising as the last clan of the Jedi in over 30 years since the fall of the Galactic Empire and also Carrie Fisher’s last performance as former Princess–turned–General Leia Organa.

One is part of a huge cult following that has touched the hearts of millions and gave birth to the meaning of space opera in just over 40 years and the other is an ensemble film adaptation filled with collective, strange and vibrant characters from all shapes and sizes as part of two banded teams spanned from over 50 years of comic books.

Slash Film reported that the budget for Infinity War is $500 million and together with the fourth untitled Avengers film the budget is approx $1 billion altogether. That means in order for the film to do well, opening weekend must cross $200-$250 million. No doubt those distributors will triple down on their marketing campaign of the film since Captain America: Civil War.

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I predict that its opening weekend will be around the $225-230 million mark and its worldwide gross with up to $1.5 to £2 billion worldwide. For both of the Avengers to ends its worldwide gross to around short of $5 billion altogether.