In late June 2024, Denis Villeneuve sustained the momentum of his majestic sequel Dune: Part Two and announced that the never-attempted-nor-adapted Dune: Messiah will be released on December 18, 2026. While that seemed an eternity away, the red Sharpies came out and Dec. 18, 2026 was circled on calendars everywhere.
Thanks to Marvel Studios, the date is getting a little crowded. Evidently, the Russo brothers are having too much fun with the Marvel Cinematic Universe family reunion cast and pushed back both Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars six months each to make time for post-production. That meant Secret Wars is moving from May 7 to Dec. 17, 2027, and Doomsday is moving from May 1, 2026 to... Dec. 18, 2026.
Wait, what?!
It's either a complete dunderheaded move or total hubris. Either way, this is going to make next year's winter blockbuster season so interesting!
Why Dunesday could be a good move
Although not much was made of the scheduling conflict in July 2023, the cultural phenomenon known as "Barbenheimer" owned the headlines—and the box office—for the remainder of the year.
On one hand, Great Gerwig's remarkable real-life toy story was an exposé of counterculturalism and how all people should be treated. The Oscar-winning song "What Was I Made For" became an anthem for the unspoken hurts of inadequacy and introspection worldwide. Aside from its colossal $1.45 billion box-office haul, Barbie proved so many people wrong.
Meanwhile, Christopher Nolan's epic biopic about the creator of the nuclear bomb, Oppenheimer, cemented Nolan as one of this generation's most gifted storytellers. Although it narrowly missed the $1 billion mark, the Barbenheimer phenomenon is thought to have increased its eventual box-office takings, showing that it actually benefitted from the dual-release. Furthermore, the film cleaned up during award season, earning 6 BATFAs, 8 Critic's Choice awards, 6 Golden Globes, 7 Oscars, 3 SAGs and 1 GRAMMY for a triumphant Ludwig Göransson score. It was also an AFI Top-10 film of 2023.
They were both slated for July 21, 2023, and each made an indellible mark for the film season that year. The critical acclaim and the polarized opposites made it one of the top headlines of the year. Fortunately, Matt Negila of @NextBestPicture has a big brain and coined the term "Barbenheimer" and now it's history.
It was the cinematic equivalent of having pharmacies, restaurants, gas stations or coffee shops built on opposite sides of the road. Instead of detracting business for one, the dynamic blesses both locations. Barbenheimer was a miraculous accident. It benefitted streamers, theaters, moviegoers and anyone else who profited from the scheduling anti-snafu.
If "Dunesday" happens, there is no accident. Clearly, the delay to the exact date in December 2026 is nothing but strategic in hopes that Thor's lightning can be caught in a bottle twice. Theaters better prepare for the hallowed double features, because the nerd buzz for "Dunesday" is already happening.
Why Dunesday could be a bad move
The one thing that made the Barbenheimer conundrum work is that the film went after different audiences. Barbie went after a wide swath of ages, but it was primarily people who remembered playing with the plastic Mattel toys (or bought a ton of them for kids). Oppenheimer was for the Nolan acolytes (also those who love Robert Downey, Jr. and Cillian Murphy) and lovers of biopics.
When both audiences heard about the appeal and success about the other film, people switched seats. Either way, both films were enormously noteworthy because of those metaphorical opposing thumbs.
The same cannot be said for Dune: Messiah and Avengers: Doomsday.
Nerd Audience? Check. Science Fiction? Check. Acclaimed Directors? Check. Movies that cause other audiences to recoil? Check. Core demographic? Check. Rabid enthusiasm among certain outlets? Check.
Why did Marvel Studios delay Avengers: Doomsday and reschedule for that day? No one really knows, but Deadline cites sources who shared that it was a strategic factor in how mammoth the two new Avengers movies are going to be as it will allow Disney to ensure the film truly comes together instead of rushing it out next May. There is no comment from the Dune: Messiah camp, but surely producers have seen the potential car crash ahead next December.
It's too late to consider rescheduling now because the #DunesDay tag train has already begun chugging. But, there's only so much of those dollars to squeeze out of the same source. The media bubble still grows with no concern of popping yet.
So much can happen between now and December 2026, but if nothing will, then Santa Nerd is going to have fun (or be challenged) fitting box-office stubs under each tree.