Hollywood is a fickle industry. For a century, studios have been making movies in the hopes of entertaining people and turning a profit along the way. There have always been highs and lows, with some films resonating with audiences worldwide, others flopping and subsequently becoming a cult classic, and some just not making that much of a mark altogether.
In today's day and age of streaming and home media, it's harder to make a mark. Long-running TV shows get less viewers on the night as there is more competition and people can simply catch up. The same can be said for movies, which often struggle to make the waves at the box office that they would have in a previous generation simply because audiences can wait to watch on streaming services at a future date.
It looks like this might be the case for one major upcoming movie which is looking like it's about to set a franchise-record but will still ultimately struggle at the box office.
Predator: Badlands currently tracking for record-setting franchise best but will struggle overall
Predator: Badlands is currently looking to open in US theaters with a debut of $25 - $30 million. That would put it on course to enjoy the best opening weekend for a solo Predator movie (provided it stays ahead of 2010's Predators and 2018's The Predator, which both opened with $24 million) and second overall behind 2004's Alien vs. Predator, which debuted with $38 million. Combined with its predicted international takings of around $35 - $38 million, it's on course for what should be a solid debut of $68 million. And then you remember that it reportedly cost $105 million to make.
Taking all of that into account plus marketing, Predator: Badlands would have a break even point of around $260 million, which it may struggle to reach even with its potentially record-setting debut. And that's a shame, because the film is currently at an 87% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, with many critics regarding it one of the best films in the Predator franchise.
What would be particularly disheartening about Badlands potentially failing at the box office is that Disney made a decision to release this one in movie theaters after the previous live-action film in the franchise, 2022's Prey, enjoyed overwhelming success as a streaming original - becoming Hulu's most-watched original movie ever and performing very well on Disney Plus around the world. It also received critical acclaim, with many regarding it as the best film in the whole Predator franchise.
Dan Trachtenberg directed that one, as well as animated film Predator: Killer of Killers, which made everyone very excited to see what he did with Badlands. The response to the movie suggests that he has a hat-trick on his hands as his attempt to revive the Predator franchise continues. But it was hoped that these levels of buzz might have created more of a desire to see the Predator back on the silver screen.
Something that might work in Predator: Badlands's favor is that it is the first film in the franchise to possess a PG-13 rating (Predator films always aim for the R), meaning that it could - and probably will - appeal to a wider audience. That should be enough to push it over the franchise's solo movie record as expected, but it unfortunately needed to do a little more than that.
While the Predator movies have enjoyed success at the box office, they haven't received the same larger-than-life numbers that the Alien franchise has. Prey's success on streaming could have launched a new era for the film series on Disney Plus / Hulu, but that one would have worked in theaters due to its much smaller budget (Prey cost $65 million to produce). The positive response to the film and Trachtenberg's strength with the horror franchise had Disney opt to release Badlands in theaters. And the more expansive plot has resulted in a need for a bigger budget.
The film stars Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi as the Predator known as Dek, and Ellie Fanning as a synthetic known as Weyland-Yutani. They form an unlikely partnership when Dek arrives on an alien planet to hunt and prove himself to his Yuatja peers. Considered the run of the species, he has a lot to prove and he looks to do just that, going up against some major threats.
The film's ambitious storyline has it looking like Avatar in places, which of course means that it's expensive. Had we had a more straightforward Predator film, the budget could have been a lot smaller, and that would have set the film up for success. Nevertheless, Badlands looks and sounds amazing, and the positive critic reviews will hopefully push it as close to success as possible.
Disney has been having a rougher year at the box office than expected. Two of its Marvel Studios movies - Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts* - underperformed, despite the second one earning critical acclaim. The third, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, did well, but it's clear that it would have done better if it came out a few years beforehand. Although the studio still has heavy-hitters like Zootopia 2 and Wicked: For Good to look forward to this year, it was hoped that Predator: Badlands' modest budget might have allowed it to be a box office success story.
There's still a chance that it can be, but it's going to be a tough test. We're just happy that, nearly 40 years later, the Predator franchise can still break records.
Predator: Badlands arrives in movie theaters on November 7, 2025.