While the Marvel Cinematic Universe once had an impeccable track record of releasing movies to critical acclaim, that has unfortunately changed in recent years. Being a fan of the superhero giant now feels like a rollercoaster, where the highs represent the "we're so back" moments, while the lows are perceived as "it's all so over". This failure to meet expectations has led the studio to reevaluate its strategy when developing any project. Now, it will be all about quality over quantity, and we've already seen the first step in the execution of such a plan.
During an interview with The Hollywood Reporter, Disney CEO Bob Iger revealed that Thunderbolts* was a big landmark in the current iteration of the MCU. Instead of pushing Marvel Studios to produce more content, they will give it the necessary time to do something worthy of fans' time, as exemplified by their latest release:
"We all know that in our zeal to flood our streaming platform with more content, that we turned to all of our creative engines, including Marvel, and had them produce a lot more. We’ve also learned over over time that quantity does not necessarily beget quality (...) by consolidating a bit and having Marvel focus much more on their films, we believe that will result in better quality. And I think the first and best example is Thunderbolts*"
Such a shift in strategy was made with the hopes that fans would respond better to any upcoming MCU movie, filling entire theaters in the process. And while Thunderbolts* did release to raving reviews, it might ultimately result in a loss for Marvel and Disney.
Thunderbolts* isn't likely to break-even at the box office
According to a report by Variety, Thunderbolts* needs to make $425 million at the worldwide box office to break even, taking into account the movie's budget of $180 million and its marketing expenses. While the MCU's latest ensemble was cheaper to make compared to other recent releases (Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which had a staggering budget of $326.6 million), it seems that won't be enough to make it turn a profit. At the time of writing this, Thunderbolts* sits at $378 million earned at the global box office, which is a bit over $45 million shy of its goal.
Unlike other recent MCU releases, Thunderbolts* did have the benefit of being praised by critics and fans alike, with some considering it among the best superhero projects since Avengers: Endgame. So, that prompts the question: Why did it amount to yet another loss for Disney? Well, it comes down to multiple factors.
For starters, the MCU's recent shaky track record has discouraged viewers from attending these cinematic events, and that won't change with the premiere of a single movie overnight. Besides, in an era when popular heroes like the X-Men and Fantastic Four are about to steal the spotlight, more obscure characters like the Thunderbolts aren't a priority in fans' minds. Of course, it's important to note that other less-known team-ups like The Guardians of the Galaxy managed to find success at the box office. However, that's when we arrive at yet another problem harming Disney's recent heroic release.
There has been an overabundance of MCU projects in recent years, and after some point, it has become difficult for audiences to keep up with all of them. If you wanted to know who the Thunderbolts were before the release of their movie, then you needed to watch, at the very least, Black Widow, Ant-Man and The Wasp, and The Falcon and the Winter Soldier. However, the situation becomes more complex if you want to learn Yelena's whole arc, which also involves the Hawkeye series, and let's not even talk about Bucky's complete story. Unfortunately, the MCU's greatest perk has also played a part in its undoing.
Exhibitor Relations analyst Jeff Bock comments that yet another problem that greatly affected the Thunderbolts* box office was its short theatrical run:
"Thunderbolts* wrapping up after just a month in theaters is also a concern. These films aren’t legging out like previous iterations."
On the bright side, there's still a silver lining for Thunderbolts*. Even if the movie failed to break even during its time at theaters, it's likely that it can still be a long-term success thanks to its Disney+ release, merchandise, and theme park promotion. Besides, characters like Yelena, Bob, U.S. Agent, Ghost, and the Red Guardian still have the chance of becoming a staple of the MCU, especially now that the cat is out of the bag and the world knows they are the New Avengers. With a bit of luck, they'll steal the spotlight in Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars and have a successful future ahead of them from that point onwards.