What are the Oscar chances for MCU veterans this awards season?

After Robert Downey Jr. claimed a gold statue over fellow Avenger actor Mark Ruffalo at the previous Oscars, will MCU actors compete at the upcoming Academy Awards ceremony?

Winter Soldier/Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) in Marvel Studios’ THE FALCON AND THE WINTER SOLDIER. Photo by Eli Ade. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.
Winter Soldier/Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan) in Marvel Studios’ THE FALCON AND THE WINTER SOLDIER. Photo by Eli Ade. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.

The supporting actor race at last year’s Oscars was a contest between Iron Man and Hulk actors, Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer and Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, with the former proving victorious. Sterling K. Brown was also in the mix for his liberated portrayal of an openly gay surgeon in American Fiction – he had a small yet pivotal part in Black Panther. Will top tier Marvel Cinematic Universe actors go head-to-head this awards season? There are a number of thespians, who have appeared in MCU content in the past, that have been turning heads for their 2024 performances.

Jude Law sneakily played villainous Yon-Rogg in Captain Marvel, and now the former Oscar nominee headlines as an FBI agent hunting White Supremacists in The Order; his role is reminiscent of Gene Hackman’s unwavering determination in The French Connection; the latter won Best Actor in 1971. While The Order is an undeniable force of a film, Law may fly under the radar, unlike Winter Soldier actor Sebastian Stan, who would be difficult to overlook completely because of his back-to-back leading parts.

In 2024, Stan does his best work since his supporting roles in I Tonya and Destroyer. Stan is as a writer/actor with a facial condition in A Different Man, ultimately slipping into an atypical dual character scenario. A Different Man was released around the same time that The Apprentice came out, where he painted a provocative picture of Donald Trump. One of the biggest obstacles standing in the way of his first Oscar nomination is Sebastian Stan himself.

In polling terminology, the phrase is known as “splitting the vote”. Voters may check the box next to Stan’s name, but for which movie? Splitting the vote could also pose a problem when voters have a hard time choosing between two performers from the same film, in the same category. This is why the Wicked team is running Cynthia Erivo as a lead actress and Ariana Grande as a supporting actress, even though they are clearly co-leads in the musical adaptation.

Emelia Perez has drawn attention for similar “category fraud”, placing MCU actress Zoe Saldaña in the supporting role bucket although she has more screen time than anyone in Jacques Audiard’s inventive musical anomaly. Saldaña has not been this soul-crushingly vulnerable since Avengers: Infinity War and deserves the recognition no matter what category she is placed in.

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Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2..Gamora (Zoe Saldana)..Ph: Film Frame..©Marvel Studios 2017

Tilda Swinton, a favorite amongst Marvel fans for embodying the Ancient One, is in the same type of situation for Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door. Her work is movingly full of life for a woman planning to commit euthanasia, and just like Grande and Saldana, is more of a lead in the film. Of course, it would be difficult to find room for all these actresses in one category with only the capacity for five nominees.

When discussing the best actress of the year, it would be criminal not to mention Zendaya. She defied the conventional love interest part in the MCU’s Spider-Man trilogy, and now has stepped up her game for Challengers – one of the best roles of her career in a superbly organized sports drama. While an early year release does not always negatively impact award nominations, Black Panther being a famous example, industry folk might not have her at the top of their minds all these months later, when Wicked and Maria have recently released.

Angelina Jolie is not defined by a comic book role the way Robert Downey Jr. or Chris Hemsworth have been, but she did star in Eternals several years ago. The Oscar winner looks to cut through awards season with her achingly towering performance in Maria, as opera singer Maria Callas, in yet another Pablo Larrain narrative that shines a spotlight on 20th century historical women. Carrie Coon is another low-radar MCU actor; hidden behind makeup as Proxima Midnight, while her array of facial expressions is on full display in His Three Daughters this year.

ETERNALS, Angelina Jolie
(L-R): Makkari (Lauren Ridloff) and Thena (Angelina Jolie) in Marvel Studios' ETERNALS. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. ©Marvel Studios 2021. All Rights Reserved.

With all these wonderful performances, the Best Actress category is shaping up to be the most competitive this Oscar season and the strongest contender is a stranger to comic book properties. The impeccable Marianne Jean-Baptiste is the queen of curmudgeon in Hard Truths (an almost 30-year reunion with director Mike Leigh) and she may just come out on top at the Oscars.

So what about any of the core Avenger actors? Well, the best performance of the year by one of the main MCU veterans would have to go to Chris Hemsworth for Furiosa. He portrayed a complex adversary in what is certainly one of his most memorably vicious turns. It would be a delight to see such work honored by the Academy, but the odds are not in his favor.

An equally impressive actor who played Killian in Iron Man 3, Guy Pearce, has a much better shot of being recognized for his gripping supporting turn in The Brutalist. There are parallels between his roles in both movies as subtle corrupt qualities boil over into pure evil acts.

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Guy Pearce in Iron Man 3 © 2013 - Marvel

Pearce may compete against Edward Norton, who played Bruce Banner in The Incredible Hulk before Mark Ruffalo took over the position. Norton transforms into folk legend Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown, although his earnest portrayal is nowhere near as captivating as his eccentric stage actor role in Birdman, which earned Norton an Oscar nod ten years ago.

The supporting statuette should really be handed over to Jeremy Strong for devouring every second of screentime in The Apprentice, but voters might not be rebellious enough to cast their ballot for the unflattering Trump chronicle. Instead, Denzel Washington may get picked for tearing the roof off of the Colosseum (if it had one) in Gladiator 2. Not yet a MCU cast member, Washington recently apologized to Black Panther director Ryan Coogler for spilling the beans that the experienced actor has signed on for the third edition in that sub-franchise.

Washington also produced The Piano Lesson this past year. It was directed by his son Malcolm and featured his other son John David. In the August Wilson adaptation, Samuel L. Jackson (of Nick Fury fame) gave one of his most committed dramatic acting executions in years. Alas, the film’s clear standout is Danielle Deadwyler, who will likely overshadow all other players in supporting awards categories.

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Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury in Marvel Studios' Secret Invasion, exclusively on Disney+. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2022 MARVEL.

So, there are at least a dozen MCU actors who should be considered for acting awards. Even Kingsley Ben-Adir (Gravik in Secret Invasion) and Lashana Lynch (Maria Rambeau in Captain Marvel) gave award-worthy performances in Bob Marley: One Love, but the movie itself was perhaps too standard a biopic, given its revolutionary subject. By the end of the year, there are too many great actors for only ten male and ten female nomination spots at each Oscar ceremony.

MCU veterans like Zendaya, Carrie Coon, and Tilda Swinton may all be overlooked, not because of lack of depth and devotion compared to the eventual nominees, but because the field is just so crowded. Among actresses, Angelina Jolie, or even Zoe Saldana, may have better chances, potentially singing their way to Oscar glory.

On the male actor side, the MCU players with the best shot at a nomination would be Guy Pearce and Edward Norton in the supporting category, or perhaps even Stanley Tucci (who could forget his role as Erskine in Captain America: The First Avenger?); he delivered the second-best performance in Conclave, after Ralph Fiennes. Either way, there will unlikely be a showdown of the same caliber as last Oscar season, with two of the biggest MCU stars in contention for the same award.

Academy Award nominations will be announced on January 17 and the Awards Ceremony will take place on March 2.