While Disney has yet to officially announce the renewal of The Mandalorian, season 4 has all but been confirmed. Scripts for the season have been written and the show was expected to begin production this year had it not been for the strikes.
Because this is Disney, little has been revealed about the timing for when filming might finally start on season 4 but given it has yet to begin as of December 2023, we're not exactly expecting the show to be ready to release in the new year.
Over two years passed between the two seasons with season 2 coming in October 2020 and season 3 not arriving until February 2023. Given filming was delayed on season 4, we have a sneaking suspicion that the upcoming fourth season might take a bit longer to turn around as well which has us thinking we might have to wait until early 2025 for The Mandalorian to return.
Now, that doesn't mean there isn't a chance Disney+ might be able to turn around the new season in time for a late 2024 drop. We just aren't getting our hopes up that the next season and new adventures with Mando and Grogu will be coming our way in 2024.