It's once again time to look up for DC fans as Supergirl flies into movie theaters this summer. Directed by Chris Gillespie, the DC Studios movies stars Milly Alcock as the Girl of Steel in what is set to be the second theatrical release in James Gunn and Peter Safran's DC Universe. Alcock reprises her role from 2025's Superman and she's not the only returnee from that film, as Krypto the Superdog is back in a starring role while the Man of Steel himself, David Corenswet, makes a cameo appearance.
Naturally, there is a lot of intrigue to see how the movie will perform. It's a volatile time at the box office as the industry continues to contend with the impact of streaming (and post-pandemic fallout), so there are a lot of eyeballs on the DCU franchise to see if it can sustain its opening success. Although it's too early to paint any definitive stories, the numbers aren't as good as Warner Bros. and DC Studios might be hoping for.
Supergirl currently tracking in The Marvels territory
Supergirl's opening weekend at the box office will have a lot of eyeballs on it as audiences look to see whether it can match the heights of last year's Superman. We don't mean literally match them as that simply won't happen due to the Man of Steel's drawing power as one of the most famous superheroes on the planet, but can it sustain the momentum that the 2025 film started? Unfortunately, it's not looking too promising according to early projections.
A recent forecast from Box Office Theory predicts that Supergirl will open to somewhere between $47 million and $65 million domestically. The lower end of that would place it in The Marvels territory while the higher would pull it closer to Black Adam's $67 million. Neither one of these are where the DC Universe movie wants to be as they don't paint a reassuring picture for the franchise's second movie. The fact that a more up-to-date forecast currently has it tracking to do around $51 million is much less reassuring, too - especially as that would put its opening on par with The Flash, which is one of the most expensive box office failures of all time.
Those numbers would also put it significantly behind Superman's whopping $125 million opening weekend. Again, we're not expecting Supergirl to generate the same numbers as her more-famous cousin but there was hope that Kara Zor-El's debut in that film and the overall goodwill towards the DCU franchise might help raise the Girl of Steel's numbers a little higher than that.
To put that in perspective of the lower-grossing DC movies (with The Marvels thrown in for reference, too), here's where Supergirl's projected opening weekend might land it in the history books.
- Black Adam (2022) - $67 million
- The Flash (2023) - $55 million
- Shazam! (2019) - $53.5 million
- Green Lantern (2011) - $53.2 million
- * Supergirl (2026) - $51 - $57 million* (early projections)
- The Marvels (2023) - $47 million (MCU film included for reference)
- Joker: Folie a Deux (2024) - $37.6 million
- Catwoman (2004) - $40 million
- Birds of Prey (2020) - $33 million
- Shazam! Fury of the Gods (2023) - $30.1 million
- Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023) - $27.6 million
- The Suicide Squad (2021) - $26.2 million (pandemic release)
- Blue Beetle (2023) - $25 million
- Wonder Woman 1984 - $16.7 million (pandemic / HBO Max release)
While those early projections don't account for international takings, there's a reason that Supergirl might struggle on that front: Superman actually underperformed slightly on the international side of things, taking in $95 million in its opening weekend, which surprised industry insiders who expected it to pull in above $100 million. So, if Superman had an international ceiling, it's probably fair to assume that Supergirl will too.
On the brighter side of things, let's be clear: Supergirl will likely perform significantly better overall than The Marvels. That film, which is notorious for becoming Marvel Studios' first, biggest, and only outright box office flop (subsequent MCU movies have underperformed but come close enough to the breakeven mark), struggled in both domestic and international markets for a multitude of reasons, including overall franchise directionlessness and a story built around characters from Disney Plus shows. But Supergirl is more of a well-known character, even more so than Captain Marvel, so that - along with the ties to the Superman movie - should help it perform better than the 2023 MCU flick.
While it's overall box office projections suggest that it will have a decent haul for a superhero that isn't one of DC's core trinity, the biggest issue here is that $175 million budget - which would place its breakeven point around $315 million worldwide. While its projected opening doesn't rule that completely, a crowded landscape, superhero fatigue, and DC's past performances with less mainstream heroes aren't the most reassuring indicators.
As always, we're rooting for the Girl of Steel and hoping that Supergirl will overperform. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility considering how Steven Spielberg's Disclosure Day massively overperformed to lift $30 million in the global opening weekend. Here's hoping that Kara Zor-El manages to recreate that success, because the movie sure looks like it's set to be a fun time.
Supergirl stars House of the Dragon's Milly Alcock in the titular role, while also featuring Jason Momoa in the role of infamous bounty hunter Lobo. Krypto the Superdog also makes a highly-anticipated return after his debut in Superman.
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