Number Crunching: the top 20 comics sales estimates for July 2017

Comics take a beating halfway through summer, with the only winners being an event, a new number one issue and Batman.

The Top 20

"1(QTY) — 2($) — Dark Days: The Casting #1 (DC) — 128,261 (-1.82%)216(QTY) — 180($) — Dark Days: The Forge #1 (DC) — 8,437June 2017: 2(QTY) — 2($) — Dark Days: The Forge #1 (DC) — 130,651"

Commentary: Being this is the second part of the Dark Nights: Metal prologue, its not much of shock that it would do well. What is notable is how the difference between The Forge and The Casting (not counting second printings) is less than two percent. Not only does this suggest confidence among retailers that these book would sell, there seems to be genuine interest at a customer level.

If these numbers are correct, then Dark Nights: Metal #1 will do extremely well, next month. Considering what DC themselves have spoiled about the first issue, this might wind up becoming the one crossover event comic book readers actually want to read.

"2(QTY) — 1($) — Astonishing X-Men vol. 4 #1 (Marvel) — 122,287 (+82.80%)October 2013: 127(QTY) — Astonishing X-Men vol. 3 #68 (Marvel) –21,023"

Commentary: One look at this title’s wiki page is enough to show why Astonishing X-Men #1 is Marvel’s number one title for the month. Aside from being a first issue, it has no less that twenty different variant covers, most of which are comic book store exclusives. It also helps that it’s a title with name recognition, illustrated by a top-tier artist in Jim Cheung. The real test, however, is what the estimates will be for upcoming issues.

Fortunately, Charles Soule wrote a very good opening chapter, the kind of tale reminiscent of the X-Men from the early 1990’s. If this title can sustain the same level of quality as #1, then this could very well be the break the franchise, and the “ResurrXion” relaunch, so desperately needs.

"3(QTY) — 6($) — Batman vol. 3 #26 (DC) — 107,071 (+3.99%)4(QTY) — 8($) — Batman vol. 3 #27 (DC) — 102,355 (-4.40%)128(QTY) — 168($) — Batman vol. 3 #24 — 15,902267(QTY) — 269($) — Batman vol. 3 #25 — 5,951June 2017: 4(QTY) — 8($) — Batman vol. 3 #24 (DC) — 116,037 (+16.80%)June 2017: 6(QTY) — 6($) — Batman vol. 3 #25 (DC) — 102,798 (-11.40%)July 2016: 3(QTY) — 5($) — Batman vol. 3 #2 (DC) — 177,105 (-36.82%)July 2016: 5(QTY) — 6($) — Batman vol. 3 #3 (DC) — 168,939 (-4.61%)-39.41% after one year."

Commentary: No surprise, both of July’s Batman issues remain in the Top 10 above 100K. Moreover, the second printing of last month’s Batman comics also made it into the Top 300 charts. As it stands now, Batman vol. 3 #24, featuring Batman’s marriage proposal to Catwoman, is the 10th place comic for the year in total orders. Even in a downturn market, the Caped Crusader still soars high.

"5(QTY) — 3($) — Secret Empire #6 (Marvel) — 85,887 (-2.03%) 6(QTY) — 5($) — Secret Empire #7 (Marvel) — 81,365 (-5.26%)April 2017: 1(QTY) – 1($) – Secret Empire #0 (Marvel) – 162,718May 2017: 1(QTY) – 2($) – Secret Empire #1 (Marvel) – 157,517 (-3.19%)May 2017: 6(QTY) – 4($) – Secret Empire #2 (Marvel) – 100,983 (-35.89%)May 2017: 8(QTY) – 6($) – Secret Empire #3 (Marvel) – 91,611 (-9.28%)May 2017: 280(QTY) — 259($) — Secret Empire #0 (Marvel) — 6,033June 2017: 8(QTY) — 7($) — Secret Empire #4 (Marvel) — 91,621 (+0.01%)June 2017: 9(QTY) — 9($) — Secret Empire #5 (Marvel) — 87,675 (-4.30%)"

Commentary: You might argue that Secret Empire placing 5th and 6th place on the charts after being 8th and 9th place last month is good news. Likewise, because of each issue’s $5 price tag, they’re placing 3rd and 5th respectively in dollar share. Also, with each issue being 80K, with the total being greater than Dark Days: The Casting #1, all this should mean Secret Empire is a success.

Why, then, am I still saying Secret Empire is a rout as did last month? Need I remind you folks this is Marvel’s major line-wide event, which in the past tend to average over 100K for each single issue. Also, each drop indicates retailers readjusting their orders based on their own sales figures. If Secret Empire has estimates of near 80K after starting off with over 160K, it means those comics aren’t selling in big numbers at their stores. Clearly, this isn’t what Marvel was hoping from this event while heading into their Marvel Legacy relaunch.

"7(QTY) — 7($) — Star Wars vol. 2 #33 (Marvel) — 74,969 (+6.38%)June 2017: 11(QTY) — 12($) — Star Wars vol. 2 #32 (Marvel) — 70,184 (-1.01%)July 2016: 23(QTY) — 11($) — Star Wars vol. 2 #21 (Marvel) — 90,863 (-5.39%)-17.49% after one year."

Commentary: Having just finished its crossover with Star Wars: Doctor Aphra, one would think Star Wars would’ve had lower estimates this month than the previous. Instead, “The Screaming Citadel” appears to have done what crossovers are supposed to do — increase orders and sales. Granted, the title doesn’t have the same numbers it did a year ago, but for monthly, these are still respectable figures. I don’t expect Star Wars to stay near 75K for long, but it looks as though it continues to do just fine.

"8(QTY) — 4($) — Deadpool Kills The Marvel Universe Again #1 (Marvel) — 74,006 31(QTY) — 22($) — Deadpool Kills The Marvel Universe Again #2 (Marvel) — 42,326 (-42.80%)"

Commentary: Yes, it’s a sequel to 2013’s popular miniseries titled (what else?) Deadpool Kills The Marvel Universe. Perhaps this is the reason the first issue had 74K in sales estimates. It also could be the reason #2 dropped by nearly 43% in the same month. In both cases, it’s retailers anticipating demand, assuming the first issue will sell better than the second.

"9(QTY) — 16($) — The Walking Dead #169 (Image) — 67,910 (-18.15%)June 2017: 10(QTY) — 14($) — The Walking Dead #168 (Image) — 82,970 (+10.73%)July 2016: 32(QTY) — 44($) — The Walking Dead #156 (Image) — 76,355 (-6.03%)-11.06% after one year."

Commentary: After sizable spikes towards the end of its last story arc, The Walking Dead has tumbled back down below its April 2017 figures. It so happens Fear the Walking Dead also went on hiatus during July too. It makes me curious whether there’s any correlation between the sales of the comic and when both AMC’s hit series and spin-off series are on the air. Since Fear the Walking Dead returns this September, and The Walking Dead‘s eighth season premiere is in October, that will give us time to see if the comic will have any significant bumps.

"10(QTY) — 10($) — Spider-Men II #1 (Marvel) — 67,362June 2012: 9(QTY) — Spider-Men #1 (Marvel) — 94,548"

Commentary: Considering all the times Peter Parker and Miles Morales have teamed up since 2012’s Spider-Men, a sequel seemed unnecessary. It’s no surprise then the first issue of Spider-Men II wouldn’t do nearly as well as Spider-Men #1. Because it came out during a lousy month, Spider-Men II still “wins” at being July 2017’s top-selling Spider-Man title. However, don’t expect it to stay there next month. What was a novelty five years ago is now passe.

"11(QTY) — 9($) — All-Star Batman #12 (DC) — 60,569 (-3.38%)June 2017: 14(QTY) — 10($) — All-Star Batman #11 (DC) — 62,689 (-5.04%)"

Commentary: Looks like I was slightly off in my predictions for All-Star Batman #12 having estimates in the high 50K margin. Nevertheless, it looks as though it’s on track to fall below 60K by issue #13. I still believe if this happens, issue #14, the final issue of the series, will go right back above that line.

"12(QTY) — 11($) — Star Wars: Darth Vader vol. 2 #3 (Marvel) — 59,522 (-10.38%)June 2017: 3(QTY) — 4($) — Star Wars: Darth Vader vol. 2 #1 (Marvel) — 118,644June 2017: 12(QTY) — 15($) — Star Wars: Darth Vader vol. 2 #2 (Marvel) — 66.416 (-44.02%)June 2016: 30(QTY) — 27($) — Star Wars: Darth Vader vol. 1 #23 (Marvel) — 77,430 (-0.23%)-23.12% after one year."

Commentary: Falling below 60K after only three issues is not an encouraging sign for any monthly comic. That it’s also a Darth Vader series is even less encouraging. I think there’s at least two reasons behind its downward slope.

First, even though Charles Soule and Giuseppe Camuncoli are otherwise a great creative team, readers may have preferred if Marvel brought back Kieron Gillen and Salvador Larca. Second, instead of picking up where the last series left off, it’s a flashback taking place after the events of Episode III: Revenge of the Sith. If Rebels and Rogue One proved anything, it’s that Star Wars fans wish to see Vader in his prime, not still learning the ways of the Sith.

"13(QTY) — 12($) — Star Wars: Darth Maul #5 (Marvel) — 57,805 (-0.75%)February 2017: 1(QTY) — 1($) — Star Wars: Darth Maul #1 (Marvel) — 105,177March 2017: 13(QTY) — 11($) — Star Wars: Darth Maul #2 (Marvel) — 60,415 (-42.55%)April 2017: 23(QTY) — 17($) — Star Wars: Darth Maul #3 (Marvel) — 54,949 (-9.04%)June: 2017: 17(QTY) — 18($) — Star Wars: Darth Maul #4 (Marvel) — 58,240 (+5.65%)-45.04% after five issues."

Commentary: Ending at almost 58K, and averaging 67,317 after five issues, Star Wars: Darth Maul did okay for a miniseries. The story of how Maul became a Sith Lord is a great idea, but probably something Star Wars fans wanted to jump on right away. Based on these estimates, it looks as though most preferred to wait and not read individual issues. For that reason, I suspect it’s trade paperback collection will be quite successful.

"14(QTY) — 13($) — Amazing Spider-Man vol. 4 #30 (Marvel) — 56,560 (-4.88%)June 2017: 26(QTY) — 23($) — Amazing Spider-Man vol. 4 #28 (Marvel) — 50,925 (-0.94%)June 2017: 15(QTY) — 16($) — Amazing Spider-Man vol. 4 #29 (Marvel) — 59,464 (+14.35%)June 2016: 25(QTY) — 12($) — Amazing Spider-Man vol. 4 #15 (Marvel) — 87,994 (+25.39%)-35.72% after one year."

Commentary: There are really only two things bolstering Amazing Spider-Man at the moment. One is that it’s a Secret Empire tie-in, and the other is the long overdue end of Parker Industries. Otherwise, the sales estimates for Amazing Spider-Man would easily be falling under 50K at this point. Since the hemorrhaging stopped, my guess is Amazing Spider-Man vol. 4 #31 will wind up around 54-55K, while Amazing Spider-Man vol. 4 #32 will be just slightly above the 50K line.

"15(QTY) — 24($) — Detective Comics #960 (DC) — 55,074 (-0.67%) 16(QTY) — 26($) — Detective Comics #961 (DC) — 54,407 (-1.21%)June 2017: 18(QTY) — 33($) — Detective Comics #958 (DC) — 56,226 (-0.20%)June 2017: 19(QTY) — 35($) — Detective Comics #959 (DC) — 55,449 (-1.38%)July 2016: 16(QTY) — 17($) — Detective Comics #936 (DC) — 100,626 (-6.56%)July 2016: 22(QTY) — 26($) — Detective Comics #937 (DC) — 92,172 (-8.40%)-40.97% after one year."

Commentary: Same story as last month: despite its average sales estimates, Detective Comics maintains an apparently stable readership within the mid-50K margin. I do wonder about #962, as it features Azrael in his crazy Batman armor from Knightfall. Those are the kind of things retailers will increase their orders for, assuming fans will pick up the comic just because “AzBats” is on the front cover. If it’s also a decent story (which it is) then even better.

"17(QTY) — 14($) — Peter Parker: The Spectacular Spider-Man #2 (Marvel) — 54,247 (-75.84%)246(QTY) — 203($) — Peter Parker: The Spectacular Spider-Man #1 (Marvel) — 6,946June 2016: 1(QTY) — 1($) — Peter Parker: The Spectacular Spider-Man #1 (Marvel) — 224,620"

Commentary: Even with a reduction of variants and no “launch party” to bolster it, this secondary Spider-Man title still took a huge hit. When you also consider that #1, with reprints, is currently the bestselling single issue of the year, the drop becomes even more staggering. On the basis of Peter Parker: The Spectacular Spider-Man #2 (which yours truly reviewed), I don’t think the estimates will improve for next month either. If anything, I imagine this title will crash and burn right out the Top 20 and hurl towards the bottom of the charts.

"18(QTY) — 27($) — The Flash vol. 5 #26 — 54,237 (-0.07%)19(QTY) — 28($) — The Flash vol. 5 #27 — 53,806 (-0.79%)June 2017: 21(QTY) — 19($) — The Flash vol. 5 #24 (DC) — 54,275 (-0.66%)June 2017: 22(QTY) — 37($) — The Flash vol. 5 #25 (DC) — 54,632 (+0.65%)June 2016: 13(QTY) — 14($) — The Flash vol. 5 #2 (DC) — 103,308 (+2.82%)June 2016: 19(QTY) — 22($) — The Flash vol. 5 #3 (DC) — 97,334 (-5.78%)-44.72% after one year."

Commentary: Once again, The Flash returns to Top 20, but not because its part of any crossover or has a Lenticular cover. In a month where orders and sales are down for almost every title, it just has slightly better orders and sales than it’s competition. On the bright side, it looks like another series from DC which has found its core audience given its less-than-one percent attrition rate. However, I don’t expect it to stay in the low 50K range come it’s Dark Nights: Metal tie-in.

"20(QTY) — 15($) — X-Men: Gold vol. 2 #7 (Marvel) — 53,462 (+9.15%)28(QTY) — 19($) — X-Men: Gold vol. 2 #8 (Marvel) — 46,615 (-12.80%)June 2017: 20(QTY) — 20($) — X-Men: Gold vol. 2 #5 (Marvel) — 54,720 (+3.67%)June 2017: 33(QTY) — 27($) — X-Men: Gold vol. 2 #6 (Marvel) — 48,569 (-11.24%)"

Commentary: What’s amusing here is how X-Men: Gold followed roughly the same pattern for two months straight. If August also has X-Men: Gold #9 in low-50K margins and X-Men: Gold #10 at mid-to-high 40K, I’ll be really impressed. As coincidental as this was, there is a logical explanation. Both of July’s X-Men: Gold issue were also Secret Empire tie-ins. This alone accounts for the 9 percent bump between #6 and #7. Until its crossover with X-Men: Blue, it’s safe to say this title could fall even further into the low 40s.

Notable Mentions

"24(QTY) — 18($) — Edge of Venomverse #2 (Marvel) — 50,128 (-48.87%)33(QTY) — 23($) — Edge of Venomverse #3 (Marvel) — 42,167 (-15.88%)June 2017: 7(QTY) — 5($) — Edge of Venomverse #1 (Marvel) — 98,052"

Commentary: Looks like Venom’s answer to “Spider-Verse” is already losing its sheen. Although none of these Edge of Venomverse issues have a breakout character like Edge of Spider-Verse did with Spider-Gwen. Perhaps if one of them had “VenoMJ” from Amazing Spider-Man: Renew Your Vows, things might be different.

"39(QTY) — 33($) — Weapon X vol. 3 #5 (Marvel) — 39,307 (+9.89%)50(QTY) — 42($) — Weapon X vol. 3 #6 (Marvel) — 35,607 (-9.41%)June 2017: 60(QTY) — 50($) — Weapon X vol. 3 #4 (Marvel) — 35,417 (-5.32%)96(QTY) — 97($) — Totally Awesome Hulk #21 (Marvel) — 22,939 (-4.34%)June 2017: 115(QTY) — 118($) — Totally Awesome Hulk #20 — 23,019 (+22.92%)July 2016: 87(QTY) — 88($) — Totally Awesome Hulk #8 — 27,522 (-10.66%)July 2016: 90(QTY) — 91($) — Totally Awesome Hulk #9 — 26,936 (-2.12%)-14.83% after one year"

Commentary: Despite a bump, the “Weapon of Mutant Destruction” crossover with Totally Awesome Hulk, Weapon X seems to have all but lost it within the same month. At least Weapon X is doing marginally better than Totally Awesome Hulk (soon to be re-titled Incredible Hulk).

"75(QTY) — 69($) — All-New Guardians of the Galaxy #5 (Marvel) — 28,488 (-39.87%)95(QTY) — 94($) — All-New Guardians of the Galaxy #6 (Marvel) — 23,277 (-18.29%)June 2017: 31(QTY) — 71($) – All-New Guardians of the Galaxy #3 (Marvel) — 49,907 (-3.71%)June 2017: 34(QTY) — 102($) — All-New Guardians of the Galaxy #4 (Marvel) — 47,385 (-5.05%)July 2016: 68(QTY) — Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 4 #10 (Marvel) — 36,614 (+5.65%)-36.42% after one year."

Commentary: Looks like having a big-budget, critically-acclaimed blockbuster film really doesn’t translate into comic sales. Although this could very well be the result of fans turning against a relaunch that was so blatantly done by Marvel to capitalize off Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. Even so, you’d think Marvel would have a better handle on translating movie success into comic success.

"78(QTY) — 254($) — True Believers: Amazing Fantasy Starring Spider-Man #1 (Marvel) — 27,457"

Commentary: In case you’re wondering, this one dollar comic contained a reprint of Spider-Man’s origin story from 1962’s Amazing Fantasy #15. Yet this reprint managed to beat a slew of other Marvel titles, including those with tie-ins to Secret Empire. The only reason why it’s so low in dollar share is because it only cost a buck.

"100(QTY) — 101($) — Iron Fist vol. 5 #5 (Marvel) — 22,420 (-9.25%)June 2017: 105(QTY) — 109($) — Iron Fist vol. 5 #4 (Marvel) — 24,706 (-9.06%)"

Commentary: Here’s a title which started off in the Top 5 earlier this year, only to now barely make it into the Top 100 after five issues. The poor reception towards the Iron Fist Neflix series likely made things worse. At this rate, I expect this comic getting the chopping block by #10 or #12. Unless Marvel plans on keeping it around for Iron Fist season 2.

Next: Number Crunching: the top 20 comics sales estimates for July 2017

What do you think are the causes behind such poor Direct Market numbers. Is it because comics are too expensive for the average consumer, or are there too many titles to choose from? What about the lack of accessibility, along with not enough specialty stores? Let’s also consider the possibility that the content itself is to blame, with fans feeling they’re not getting quality storytelling for what they’re paying for. Sound off on what you think might be responsible, and if there’s any possible solutions.

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Number Crunching: The top 20 comics sales estimates for July 2017

By Mike McNulty | Aug 17, 2017

Comics take a beating halfway through summer, with the only winners being an event, a new number one issue and Batman.

The Top 20

Notable Mentions