Joker: What are Joaquin Phoenix’s Oscar chances?

Will Joaquin Phoenix be awarded an Academy Award for his haunting portrayal of the Batman villain in Joker?

No matter what you thought about Todd Phillips’ new Joker movie, few can deny that the actor wearing the clown’s makeup is tremendous in it. Joaquin Phoenix eerily illuminates the dark corner of contemporary society that has been increasingly harrowed by the rise of mentally disturbed individuals committing horrible acts of violence. Through his gradual decline into terrifying sadism, he separates himself from Heath Ledger’s Joker, who was immediately presented as an anarchic domestic terrorist with brilliantly choreographed master plans.

Unlike Ledger, Phoenix’s inherent frustration and indignant outlook fuel his villainy. Both are phenomenal due to the actors’ intensely dedicated approach to the unhinged criminal. Heath Ledger won a posthumous Academy Award for his role in The Dark Knight ten years ago. If Joaquin Phoenix is just as compelling – is he due to win the same award for playing the same character?

In The Dark Knight, Joker was Batman’s nemesis, and thus the role was in the Best Supporting Actor category. Now Joker is an antihero at the forefront, clearly placing Phoenix in the Best Actor column. While many comic book movie fans may quickly classify the three-time Oscar nominee’s Joker as award-worthy, the competition is always the biggest deciding factor of whether one nabs a nomination.

And is Phoenix the only superhero movie actor who gave an Oscar-caliber performance this year? In some ways, what Robert Downey Jr. pulls off in Avengers: Endgame is more special because he was not operating in a character study that focused on the minute details of the protagonist’s individual arc. However, Robert Downey Jr. took every second of screen time and made it personal and equally as powerful by relating Tony Stark’s humanity and sense of responsibility to lost teammates and loved ones.

Still, a nomination for Robert Downey Jr. is much more of a long shot precisely because of that lack of character singularity. Downey Jr. even opted out of the Oscar campaigns, considering Endgame is an ensemble (one of the largest ever assembled). Even though he is magnificent in the film and deserves more praise than most leading actors of 2019, Phoenix will undoubtedly prevail over Downey Jr. when it comes to acting prizes.

There are several other actors that will likely attract attention away from Phoenix during awards season, such as Antonio Banderas. Pain and Glory is Pedro Almodovar’s richest work in years, and Banderas is very much at the heart of it. It may go down as his career-best performance but, unfortunately for him, the visceral Phoenix is far superior, which may give the latter the edge this year.

Edward Norton could be an Oscar contender, directing himself as a 1950s private investigator with Tourette’s syndrome, to often comical results. The act could have turned gimmicky, yet Norton’s professionalism keeps the audience with him during the whole messy, circuitous mystery. Motherless Brooklyn wants to be Chinatown even more than Joker wants to be Taxi Driver, and the forced plot turns may end up hurting the movie’s reputation come awards season. Phoenix should be able to land a nomination over Norton.

Other big names may be in the running, such as Christian Bale in James Mangold’s Ford v. Ferrari or maybe Adam Sandler could sneak in a nomination for the Safdie Brothers’ Uncut Gems. And Taron Egerton gave an emphatic presentation in the musical biopic, Rocketman, as Elton John, which parallels last year’s winner, Rami Malek, who played Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody.

Yet the odds will most likely swing in the favor of Leonardo DiCaprio, who delivers another powerhouse performance in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. He is simply eclectic – offering piercing depth and insight to a character that could have easily been unremarkable in lesser hands.

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Perhaps the biggest obstacle for Phoenix’s first Oscar win would be Adam Driver. Driver is the one to beat in a mesmerizing turn as a father going through a heartbreaking divorce in Marriage Story. His ever-expanding versatility recently earned him his first nomination in Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman and, now, he dials up the emotional stakes yet again for Marriage Story. His Marriage Story co-star, Scarlett Johannsson, may also be lined up for her first nomination courtesy of the Noah Baumbach drama, which fittingly follows her painfully soul-stirring demise in Avengers: Endgame earlier in the year.

Joaquin Phoenix clearly has plenty of opposition this awards season, not to mention his Joker co-star, Robert De Niro, going back to his Scorsese/gangster movie roots with The Irishman. With six or seven notable contenders, it might be difficult enough for Phoenix to break into the top five so, if he does receive a nod, he would have a heck of a time earning enough votes to win.

Ledger’s Dark Knight victory was secured mainly due to his performance coming in one of the most beloved films of the year, and his untimely passing may have also swayed some Academy members to vote for him. On the contrary, Joker is proving to be quite a divisive movie, even though Phoenix’s unnerving turn is almost universally praised. He has a fairly good chance, although definitely not guaranteed, for his fourth Oscar nomination, with Driver standing in the way of his first win. Still, a golden statuette is not an impossibility, and it would be a celebrated surprise to comic book fans if his name is called on Oscar night.