There is life out there after all. Steven Spielberg's return to science fiction is wielding much better numbers than expected, as Disclosure Day is beaming up the competition on its opening weekend - putting its final numbers well above the relatively low projections.
According to Deadline, the film is currently looking at pulling in an impressive $44 million domestically, with international takings set to take the worldwide total to an incredible $94 million by end-of-weekend. This is well up from the moderate, underwhelming predictions of a $60 million opening, and it bodes well for the Spielberg spectacular, which carries a price tag of $115 million.
It's currently finishing No. 1 in all markets except Germany, where it is currently No. 2 behind Scary Movie. Those are rewarding numbers, particularly at a time when non-franchise movies struggle to break out and there is a superhero movie to contend with essentially every month. While it's still not what a movie of this ilk would have done in the '90s or the 2000s, there is hope that it's holding its own in a crowded landscape.
Disclosure Day's opening weekend has given it a path to profitability
Variety reports that Disclosure Day would need to make around $300 million to break even, which is certainly a taller task for a non-franchise film, but its better-than-expected opening weekend at least sets it up with a chance of doing that. The question is whether the strong word-of-mouth can work in its favor during a relatively packed summer season at the box office. In an era where blockbuster films tend to drop around 70% in their second week, Disclosure Day needs to have legs. Luckily, there are some elements working in its favor.
Spielberg movies are notorious for having legs. While they generally open strong, they have a multiplier effect that allows them to outpace competition and ultimately achieve the record-breaking success that other movies might strive to get towards quicker. E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial opened to a solid $11 million domestically, but over the course of its box office run, it continued to draw in audiences that it finished said run with $300+ million domestically (and $797 million worldwide). Jurassic Park opened to $50 million and still managed to cross $1 billion worldwide.
Granted, modern cinema is a completely different landscape, but industry insiders are expecting Disclosure Day to at least have some level of a multiplier effect. The audiences for Spielberg's movies are somewhat older than the crowds that most modern blockbusters might draw, so they don't necessarily feel the urge to rush out and see the movies on opening weekend.
If that proves to be the case, there won't be much in the way of competition for adults in the coming week. Oh, we know Toy Story 5 will dominate the markets next week and there will no doubt be older audiences there too (adults who grew up with the Toy Story movies or parents taking their kids to see it), its core audience will still be different enough to ensure that there isn't too much of an overlap.
The week after that will see Supergirl fly onto screens and, again, while there will be some overlap, not enough. DC Studios will be going after the same younger audience that last year's Superman (and this summer's Spider-Man: Brand New Day from Sony / Marvel Studios) reached. While there are indeed aliens in both, the core audiences should have enough differences.
All in all, Disclosure Day is off to a much better start than expected and if it manages to replicate Spielberg's successful long-term formula, we could be looking at a sustained, healthy box office run. And after Phil Lord and Christopher Miller struck gold with Project Hail Mary earlier this year, sci-fi might truly be back at the box office.
Disclosure Day is in movie theaters now. Make sure you go and see it!
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