Ranking The Marvel Phase Three Movies By Box Office Potential
By Nick Tylwalk
Everyone knows that there’s no correlation between what a movie makes at the box office and its quality. The thing is, one of those things is subjective, while the other can be measured down to the last cent.
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Plus, you can put money in the bank, or you can roll around in it in bed like you were reenacting this scene from Indecent Proposal (and probably hire the great Sade to sing that song too). The hot streak that Marvel is on will most likely allow its execs to choose either one of those options after the Marvel Phase Three movie slate is complete.
Trying to predict which of these nine movies will be the “best” is nearly impossible from this far out, especially since we don’t even know who will be writing, directing or starring in some of them. But prognosticating on how much money they’ll make? Oh yeah, that we can do.
Please keep in mind that I’m not a professional movie forecaster by any means, though I am a bit of a box office nerd. Therefore, some of my predictions are going to have ridiculously wide ranges that give me plenty of room for error. Even then, I expect to be wrong on at least half of these. Also, maybe ticket prices will double by 2018, in which case all bets are off.
I’m alright with that. I’m also perfectly fine with you telling me on Twitter that I’m full of crap, because we can still have fun with it. Let’s do this, ranking all nine Marvel Phase Three flicks in order of (domestic) box office glory!
9. Inhumans
Prediction: $200-$220 million
Sure, Marvel just made a compelling argument called Guardians of the Galaxy that suggests it can turn any characters in its stable into a brand that will make a lot more than this. It also appears the company is trying to set this up with other things they’re doing in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, particularly on Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
Here’s the hard truth, though: the Inhumans just aren’t as interesting as the Guardians, and Marvel will have to do a heck of a lot of work over the next four years to prove otherwise. The two most interesting characters, Black Bolt and Lockjaw, don’t even talk. That’s a much harder sell than Rocket and Groot. I can’t see them replacing the X-Men in the public consciousness by 2018, and besides, if people don’t start watching Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. in greater numbers pretty soon, that show will be long gone and unable to help.
Marvel and Disney will put its immense marketing muscle behind this one, but I still can’t see it doing anything but bringing up the rear. Sorry Inhumans.
8. Doctor Strange
Prediction: $215-$230 million
I hope I’m wrong about this one. Doctor Strange is an awesome character who deserves to have a much wider fan base than he currently does, and maybe Scott Derrickson will provide that for him. If Benedict Cumberbatch ever signs on the dotted line, that could help too, as his star should only grow by the fall of 2016.
But my gut tells me this will be the trickiest of the Marvel Phase Three films to write, and one that might have a difficult time finding the kind of tone that made previous films by the studio appeal to such a wide range of people. Captain America: The Winter Solider was more serious than other Marvel movies and did just fine, but this promises to be that way and have magic in it.
Add it all up and I see this one falling last among the five solo pictures in this group. Still not a bad place to be though.
7. Captain Marvel
Prediction: $225-$250 million
I know, I know. The world is waiting for a female super hero movie, and there’s unserved demand for a heroine in a leading role like this. I completely agree that this was a popular move among fans, but will that manifest itself in tons of ticket sales?
This one feels like a “show me” situation, where I’ll only believe this is what the masses were clamoring for when they actually prove it. On top of that, it’s likely that one of the other studios is going to beat Marvel to the punch with a female-led superhero movie before 2018, so the novelty factor won’t be able to drive it.
Carol Danvers is a great, multi-faceted character, so she could fly higher, particularly if Marvel really nails it with the casting and choice of directors. I’m just hesitant to say this will do any better because it’s uncharted territory. Have to bet on the proven winners.