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Will Avengers: Age Of Ultron Have The Biggest Opening Weekend Of All Time?

By Nick Tylwalk

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When Avengers: Age of Ultron releases on May 1 — or really April 30, if you want to get technical about it, since you can see the movie as early as 7 pm the night before its official release date — it’s going to be huge. That’s indisputable.

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Many comic and super hero fans could care less how much money the movie makes, and like them, my main concern is whether or not it’s a fun film, one that keeps Marvel’s hot streak alive. For those of us who are also fascinated by the business side of the industry, though, there’s another question to consider: will Age of Ultron have the biggest opening weekend of all time?

At least one movie analyst has already gone on the record with his prediction. Martin Pykkonen of Rosenblatt Securities is calling for Age of Ultron to have a $217 million opening weekend, which would help it pass The Avengers for the record.

I’m not expert enough to call for a specific dollar figure, but I’m pretty sure Pykkonen is right. Here’s why:

  • Sequels to blockbuster movies tend to open even higher

If you head to a site like Box Office Mojo and check out the top opening weekends ever, this trend jumps right out at you. The Dark Knight Rises topped The Dark Knight, Spider-Man 3 opened the best in its series, and Iron Man 3 soared above its predecessors. Even among non-super hero movies, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire managed to do what came before them.

Even when the movies themselves let people down (ahem, Spider-Man 3), it’s not enough to derail the money train in the first three days. So even in the extremely unlikely event that Age of Ultron is a hot mess, it shouldn’t outweigh this trend.

This is also closely related to my next reason, which is …

  • Movies aren’t getting any cheaper

In the first decade of the 21st century, ticket prices leaped 39 percent. The increase has been much a much more mild five percent since 2011, but the average ticket still costs 34 cents more now than it did when The Avengers hit theaters in 2012. Even if the same number of people show up in theaters for the sequel, it will make more money on opening weekend. It’s just math.

  • Everything is trending correctly

It’s an understatement to say that Age of Ultron is highly anticipated. On Rotten Tomatoes, it has a perfect 100 percent audience score from almost 200,000 people, which means that all of them have ranked it 3.5 stars or higher on a five-star scale in terms of how much they want to see it. Other sentiment polls have found the same thing; namely, that along with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, this is the film most people are looking forward to in 2015.

On top of that, Disney and Marvel have managed to avoid giving too much away in their nonstop barrage of trailers, images and interviews. Hyping a tentpole flick without spoiling too much of it is a tricky balancing act, but it feels like a successful one in this case.

I suppose something could still happen between now and the end of April, but there’s too much momentum here to deny. Avengers: Age of Ultron is going to have a monster opening weekend, and all signs are that it will be a historic one, as well.

Next: See the action-packed Age of Ultron TV spot

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