Number Crunching: The top 20 comics sales estimates for August 2017
By Mike McNulty
Metal, Batman, and the almost concluded Secret Empire take up the top spot in what proves a very dismal summer for comics.
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It is with a heavy heart, fellow number crunchers, that I bring you these latest comic sales estimates (via Comichron and ICv2). For if you thought last month was bad, it pales what happened last August, as the market saw comic sales down between 25 and 26% from last year. Only three comics, this time, had estimates over 100,000. And despite leading in both unit and dollar share, Marvel’s number one title couldn’t even reach 90,000. Dark days (and nights) indeed.
This does mean, however, a few shifts within our usual Top 20. For as one line-wide event bows out, another rises to take its place. It’s also a month where we get our first glimpse of how well–or how badly–Generations has done for Marvel, and what this might mean going forward. Let’s all take a collective sigh and assess the damage, shall we?
Again, as a reminder, these are estimates tabulated from Diamond Distributors Inc. figures and limited to North American periodicals. “QTY” indicates unit share, while “$” represents dollar share.
The Top 20
"1(QTY) — 1($) — Dark Nights: Metal #1 (DC) — 261,997 (+51.04%)June 2017: 2(QTY) — 2($) — Dark Days: The Forge #1 (DC) — 130,651July 2017: 1(QTY) — 2($) — Dark Days: The Casting #1 (DC) — 128,261 (-1.82%)"
Commentary: I believe all of us had more than an educated guess that the “official first issue” of this crossover event from DC would take the number one spot. However, with more than 261,000 in unit orders, it also beat Peter Parker: The Spectacular Spider-Man #1 as the year’s number one “bestselling” comic. Of course, it did also have seven different covers, each illustrated by the industry’s top artists. Doubtless, this is what really gave Dark Nights: Metal #1 the added edge.
"2(QTY) — 7($) — Batman vol. 3 #28 (DC) — 104,666 (+2.20%)3(QTY) — 8($) — Batman vol. 3 #29 (DC) — 100,787 (-3.70%)July 2017: 3(QTY) — 6($) — Batman vol. 3 #26 (DC) — 107,071 (+3.99%)July 2017: 4(QTY) — 8($) — Batman vol. 3 #27 (DC) — 102,355 (-4.40%)July 2017: 128(QTY) — 168($) — Batman vol. 3 #24 — 15,902July 2017: 267(QTY) — 269($) — Batman vol. 3 #25 — 5,951August 2016: 6(QTY) — 5($) — Batman vol. 3 #4 (DC) — 152,985 (-10.42%)August 2016: 7(QTY) — 7($) — Batman vol. 3 #5 (DC) — 142,142 (-7.08%)-29.09% after one year."
Commentary: As it has for so many years, Batman continues being the foundation of DC Comics. I do think based on its current trends, however, we’ll see at least one issue fall under 100K during September. This already happened more than once this year, and would’ve stayed in the high 90K margins were it not for the “The Button” crossover. Even so, this is the one superhero comic which appears consistently healthy.
"4(QTY) — 2($) — Secret Empire #10 (Marvel) — 86,123 (+10.50%) 6(QTY) — 3($) — Secret Empire #8 (Marvel) — 81,488 (+0.15%) 7(QTY) — 5($) — Secret Empire #9 (Marvel) — 77,072 (-5.41%)April 2017: 1(QTY) – 1($) – Secret Empire #0 (Marvel) – 162,718May 2017: 1(QTY) – 2($) – Secret Empire #1 (Marvel) – 157,517 (-3.19%)May 2017: 6(QTY) – 4($) – Secret Empire #2 (Marvel) – 100,983 (-35.89%)May 2017: 8(QTY) – 6($) – Secret Empire #3 (Marvel) – 91,611 (-9.28%)May 2017: 280(QTY) — 259($) — Secret Empire #0 (Marvel) — 6,033June 2017: 8(QTY) — 7($) — Secret Empire #4 (Marvel) — 91,621 (+0.01%)June 2017: 9(QTY) — 9($) — Secret Empire #5 (Marvel) — 87,675 (-4.30%)July 2017: 5(QTY) — 3($) — Secret Empire #6 (Marvel) — 85,887 (-2.03%)July 2017: 6(QTY) — 5($) — Secret Empire #7 (Marvel) — 81,365 (-5.26%)"
Commentary: Starting off high but ending low always happens with line-wide crossover event books. But 86,000? For the supposed most talked about big event of the summer? I don’t care if it’s number four on the charts, that is pathetic. And remember, these are figures derived from retailer orders, and not actual sales. Marvel went all-in on Secret Empire, and the results not only poisoned their entire line-up and tainted Legacy, it hurt the industry as a whole.
"5(QTY) — 4($) — Generations: Wolverine & All-New Wolverine #1 (Marvel) — 85,688 (+34.67%) 8(QTY) — 6($) — Generations: Unworthy Thor & Mighty Thor #1 (Marvel) — 76,400 (-10.83%) 13(QTY) — 10($) — Generations: Banner Hulk & Totally Awesome Hulk #1 (Marvel) — 61,311 16(QTY) — 13($) — Generations: Phoenix & Jean Grey #1 (Marvel) — 55,972 (-8.70%) 28(QTY) — 18($) — Generations: Hawkeye & Hawkeye #1 (Marvel) — 45,069 (-41.00%)"
Commentary: For clarification, the order in which these individual one-shots were published was Hulk, Phoenix, Wolverine, Thor, and Hawkeye. In addition, each issue also had the same amount of variant covers attached. Thus it’s interesting seeing which Marvel Generations comic did well based on the assumed demand from the retailers. Even so, for such a highly promoted anthology and a precursor for another line-wide relaunch, estimates between 85K and 45K seem very low.
"9(QTY) — 11($) — Star Wars vol. 2 #34 (Marvel) — 66,628 (-11.12%)10(QTY) — 12($) — Star Wars vol. 2 #35 (Marvel) — 65,943 (-1.02%)July 2017: 7(QTY) — 7($) — Star Wars vol. 2 #33 (Marvel) — 74,969 (+6.38%)August 2016: 20(QTY) — 12($) — Star Wars vol. 2 #22 (Marvel) — 85,126 (-6.31%)-22.53% after one year."
Commentary: Well, it didn’t take long for Star Wars to fall under 70K again now, did it? The figures would be potentially lower, too, without those three variant covers apiece. Still, even though these aren’t excellent numbers, they’re still moderately okay, and the series is likely performing decently in comic shops. As I believe I said before, we’ll likely see another boost come December during The Last Jedi.
"11(QTY) — 20($) — The Walking Dead #170 (Image) — 65,855 (-3.02%)July 2017: 9(QTY) — 16($) — The Walking Dead #169 (Image) — 67,910 (-18.15%)August 2016: 13(QTY) — 22($) — The Walking Dead #157 (Image) — 97,689 (+21.83%)-32.58% after one year."
Commentary: It may take another month for us to get a better picture, but it looks as though Image’s signature series is settling in the mid-60K. As I said before, though, with both the second-half of the third season Fear the Walking Dead and season eight of The Walking Dead on their way, I’m anticipating bumps in September and October. In any case, I think The Walking Dead will be back in the Top 10 very soon.
"12(QTY) — 14($) — Star Wars: Jedi of the Republic – Mace Windu #1 (Marvel) — 62,543"
Commentary: A.k.a. “because Samuel L. Jackson demanded it!” In all seriousness, I suspect the reason for this miniseries happened, in part, because of Star Wars: Darth Maul. After all, they’re both the best new characters who came out of the Star Wars prequels—the only ones, in fact. The difference is Darth Maul had a better showing for its #1 than Mace Windu did. Given its current placement and estimates, I don’t expect this comic to stay within the Top 20 for long.
"14(QTY) — 15($) — Star Wars: Darth Vader #4 (Marvel) — 58,380 (-1.91%)July 2017: 12(QTY) — 11($) — Star Wars: Darth Vader vol. 2 #3 (Marvel) — 59,522 (-10.38%)August 2016: 31(QTY) — 21($) — Star Wars: Darth Vader vol. 1 #24 (Marvel) — 75,401(-2.62%)-22.57% after one year."
Commentary: Not as dramatic a drop-off between this time around, which suggests Darth Vader is starting to settle after four issues. Even so, I think it’s clear that, based on the year-to-year estimates, Marvel made a big mistake canceling and relaunch the series. It’s possible, given today’s market, the estimates could be the same, but I imagine they’d be above 60K at least.
"15(QTY) — 9($) — All-Star Batman #13 (DC) — 56,990 (-5.90)July 2017: 11(QTY) — 9($) — All-Star Batman #12 (DC) — 60,569 (-3.38%)August 2016: 2(QTY) — 1($) — All-Star Batman #1 (DC) — 289,348-80.30% after one year."
Commentary: Decent but not outstanding figures for All-Star Batman as it winds down towards the final issue, especially when you look at where it began. While my prediction issue #13 would fall under 60K proved correct, I’m surprised by how much it fell by. I’ll have to reevaluate my predictions for All-Star Batman #14. We might be looking at estimates in the low 50K margins that particular comic.
"17(QTY) — 29($) — Detective Comics #962 (DC) — 54,259 (-0.27%)20(QTY) — 32($) — Detective Comics #963 (DC) — 52,975 (-2.36%)July 2017: 15(QTY) — 24($) — Detective Comics #960 (DC) — 55,074 (-0.67%)July 2017: 16(QTY) — 26($) — Detective Comics #961 (DC) — 54,407 (-1.21%)August 2016: 17(QTY) — 20($) — Detective Comics #938 (DC) — 88,935 (-3.63%)August 2016: 26(QTY) — 30($) — Detective Comics #939 (DC) — 81,465 (-8.39%)-34.97% after one year."
Commentary: Another month where the estimates for Detective Comics continue its slow and gradual slide. What’s different, of course, is they’re not so close together when it comes to their chart placements. It’s possible next month could result in one issue of Detective Comics remaining in the Top 20 while another issue doesn’t make it. The one which will stay in the top 20 will likely be issue #965, being it’s the issue where Tim Drake “returns from the dead.”
"18(QTY) — 17($) — Amazing Spider-Man vol. 4 #31 (Marvel) — 54,102 (-4.34%)July 2017: 14(QTY) — 13($) — Amazing Spider-Man vol. 4 #30 (Marvel) — 56,560 (-4.88%)August 2016: 4(QTY) — 6($) — Amazing Spider-Man vol. #16 (Marvel) — 185,342 (+52.52%)August 2016: 32(QTY) — 18($) — Amazing Spider-Man vol. 4 #17 (Marvel) — 74,869 (-59.60%)-27.73% after one year."
Commentary: On the bright side, Amazing Spider-Man is consistent in terms of its ranking and estimates. Unfortunately, those estimates are also consistently mediocre when compared with previous months and even a year ago. Looks like I was correct in saying issue #31 would fall between 54 and 55K for August, so I’m sticking with my other prediction that issue #32 will be just slightly above 50K. The real question is what will happen with Amazing Spider-Man #789
"19(QTY) — 30($) — The Flash vol. 5 #28 (DC) — 54,076 (+0.47%)21(QTY) — 33($) — The Flash vol. 5 #29 (DC) — 52,819 (-2.32%)July 2017: 18(QTY) — 27($) — The Flash vol. 5 #26 (DC) — 54,237 (-0.07%)July 2017: 19(QTY) — 28($) — The Flash vol. 5 #27 (DC) — 53,806 (-0.79%)August 2016: 15(QTY) — 15($) — The Flash vol. 5 #4 (DC) — 92,916 (-4.53%)August 2016: 24(QTY) — 26($) — The Flash vol. 5 #5 (DC) — 83,482 (-10.15%)-36.73% after one year."
Commentary: Looks as though The Flash is still holding steady among the low 50K margins, yet only has one issue in the Top 20 for the month. More than likely it will have roughly similar figures during September, but I suspect they’ll rank higher among the Top 20. After all, without Marvel’s Secret Empire, it’s likely will see comics like The Flash climb the ranks to fill in the gaps.
Notable Mentions
"22(QTY) — Astonishing X-Men vol. 4 #2 (Marvel) — 51,353 (-58.00%)July 2017: 2(QTY) — 1($) — Astonishing X-Men vol. 4 #1 (Marvel) — 122,287 (+82.80%)"
Commentary: Without those more twenty variant covers issue #1 had (issue #2 only has three), Astonishing X-Men took a big tumble. Even so, it’s still outperforming both X-Men: Gold and X-Men: Blue, making it the quasi-flagship title of the X-Men line. It’s a good comic, but really goes to show the sorry state Marvel’s merry mutants find themselves in.
"33(QTY) — 25($) — Spider-Men II #2 (Marvel) — 41,765 (-37.99%)253(QTY) — 211($) — Spider-Men II #1 (Marvel) — 7,458July 2017: 10(QTY) — 10($) — Spider-Men II #1 (Marvel) — 67,362"
Commentary: With such a sharp drop-off between issue #1 and #2, it seems the general comic buying public isn’t all that interested in team-ups between Peter Parker and Miles Morales. If so, this may not bode well for next month’s Generations: Peter Parker Spider-Man and Miles Morales Spider-Man.
"50(QTY) — 45($) — Star Wars: Doctor Aphra #11 (Marvel) — 36,472 (-2.69%)52(QTY) — 24($) — Star Wars: Doctor Aphra Annual #1 (Marvel) — 34,473 (-5.48%)July 2017: 42(QTY) — 35($) — Star Wars: Doctor Aphra #9 (Marvel) — 38,209 (-23.91%)July 2017: 45(QTY) — 38($) — Star Wars: Doctor Aphra #10 (Marvel) — 37,481 (-1.90%)"
Commentary: Even after the “The Screaming Citadel” crossover with Star Wars, this Darth Vader spin-off comic still slid down in the numbers. Then again, Doctor Aphra always was a B-title in the Star Wars line-up, and will likely stay within the 30K margins for a few more months
"60(QTY) — 50($) — Mister Miracle vol. 4 #1 (DC) — 33,493"
Commentary: A debut of over 30K isn’t a promising beginning by any stretch. In this case, though, there’s been reports of issue #1 selling out, thanks to positive word-of-mouth. It’s obvious retailers underestimated (and thus under-ordered) Mister Miracle, so it’s possible an issue could see a boost for next month as a result.
"74(QTY) — 101($) — Green Lanterns #28 (DC) — 30,024 (-0.83%)75(QTY) — 104 ($) — Green Lanterns #29 (DC) — 29,451 (-1.90%)July 2017: 68(QTY) — 93($) — Green Lanterns #26 (DC) — 31,045 (-1.17%)July 2017: 70(QTY) — 96($) — Green Lanterns #27 (DC) — 30,278 (-2.47%)August 2016: 37(QTY) — 42($) — Green Lanterns #4 (DC) — 71,140 (-9.61%)August 2016: 44(QTY) — 49($) — Green Lanterns #5 (DC) — 65,252 (-8.27%)-54.86% after one year."
Commentary: When I look at these figures, it’s hard believing how, once upon a time, Green Lantern was once DC’s most popular franchise after Batman. Then again, this is the Simon Baz and Jessica Cruz team-up book, not Hal Jordan’s comic. It’s also still doing okay, all things considered.
"100(QTY) — 97($) — Jessica Jones #11 (Marvel) — 22,774 (+5.65%)July 2017: 103(QTY) — 105($) — Jessica Jones #10 (Marvel) — 21,486 (-3.48%)"
Commentary: The hard-drinking, super-powered private eye is back in the Top 100, perhaps because she also appears in Netflix’s The Defenders which premiered during the same month. Nevertheless, it won’t be long until this comic falls below 20K and out of the 100th place slot.
Next: Number Crunching: the top 20 comics sales estimates for July 2017
Last time, I asked what you believe are the possible causes behind what is looking more and more like a severe slump. This time, I would like to know whether you think August will be the worst this year has to offer, or will September be even worse? If you were in charge of one the major comic publishers, what course corrections would you enact. I’d also be very curious to hear from some of you comic book retailers out there, as well. Let’s cross our fingers for next month, my fellow number crunchers.