No matter how The Mandalorian and Grogu performs during its opening weekend at the box office, there are going to be a lot of "worst opening for a modern Star Wars movie" headlines. Hey, it's coming in above projections, so it might just defeat Solo: A Star Wars Story's opening weekend to land "second-worst", but those headlines will simply overlook the complexity of the situation, as well as the context. For the newest Star Wars film is actually far, far away from being a flop like those headlines might suggest.
Like we said, the film is performing better than expected at the box office and it is going to easily secure that No. 1 spot worldwide but the nuance goes beyond that, as Disney and Lucasfilm knew that they couldn't risk repeating the Solo misfire of 2018. The secret weapon to that prevention lies in Mando and Grogu's budget.
The Mandalorian and Grogu's lower budget was a wise idea
The Mandalorian and Grogu has a budget of $165 million. Better yet, it filmed in California, which reportedly earned it $21.75 million in the state's tax credits, ultimately bringing the budget down to a respectable $144 million. For a Star Wars movie, this is pretty modest but it also falls in line with the reported budget of The Mandalorian TV series, which had a budget of around $120 million per season. Considering that all involved decided to make the movie instead of a fourth season, they didn't end up spending that much more than they typically would have - which is a good thing.
Of course, with moviemaking, there is marketing to take into account. According to The Hollywood Reporter, Disney spent $100 million on marketing The Mandalorian and Grogu, which would put its break-even point at somewhere between $400 and $500 million. Considering its potential $170 million opening weekend, those numbers are within reach - and they would put it on course to landing in the green. It all depends on whether the Star Wars flick will suffer the same Week 2 drop that a number of blockbusters have been facing in today's day and age.
Regardless, The Mandalorian and Grogu is in a much healthier place than Solo: A Star Wars Story. The 2018 Han Solo prequel was well-received by audiences but it wasn't a particularly necessary part of the Star Wars lore - especially as fans revolted at the idea of anyone other than Harrison Ford playing the character. This resulted in an infamous underperformance that saw the film make around $400 million against its budget of $300 million, effectively costing the studio a lot of money. With The Mandalorian and Grogu having a budget half that size, it's primed for success - even if the numbers do end up being on the lower end compared to what we've come to expect from Star Wars fare.
The movie will likely turn a profit because of this forward-thinking on the studios' part, but on the off chance that it doesn't accomplish that during its theatrical run, it will long-term. Not only is the film likely to result in even more Baby Yoda merchandise sales, it will find an enormous amount of success when it arrives on Disney Plus - which is the home of The Mandalorian. Considering that the film was formed from the ashes of a planned fourth season that would have been housed on that very streamer, this approach allows Disney and Lucasfilm to have their cake and eat it.
Considering that The Mandalorian was already insanely expensive to produce and continued to find success on Disney Plus, opting for a cinematic release instead of a fourth season was probably the most profitable route here. Not only do the studios get to ensure that they earn back the money they spent on the production itself, they will also benefit from the inevitable streaming bump that a new season would have received anyway (whenever The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives on Disney Plus).
Thus, in many ways, the movie's lower budget has been its secret weapon as it allows the Mando-Verse to experience the best of both worlds, making the most of all the methods that can make or break a release these days. Judging by its better-than-expected opening numbers, the film will fall into the former category. This is the way.
Add us as a preferred source on Google