The Star Wars franchise made a long overdue return to movie theaters this May when The Mandalorian and Grogu arrived on the silver screen. Seven years ago (when the franchise's last movie came out), that title might have meant very little to Star Wars fans, but the fact that it's now one of the buzziest films of the year goes to show you the response to the Disney Plus era.
Mando and Grogu, of course, are the two biggest success stories from the franchise's time on the small screen, so Lucasfilm clearly had a lot of faith in them to spotlight the pair while bringing Star Wars back to the movies. Unfortunately, despite that - and moderate expectations - the film is set to make the wrong kind of history for the franchise at the box office.
The Mandalorian and Grogu now expected to be lowest-grossing Star Wars movie ever
That galaxy so far, far away has seen better days. Despite a rigorous marketing campaign from Disney and Lucasfilm, The Mandalorian and Grogu is coming in below expectations as it ages into its box office run. This is despite the fact that its opening weekend came in slightly above expectations. But even opening higher wasn't enough to help it avoid that catastrophic 70% dropoff in Week 2.
This has unfortunately put Mando and Grogu on course to become the lowest-grossing Star Wars film at the box office. Yes, that means it would come in last - even behind the infamous Solo: A Star Wars Story, which has gone down in history as the franchise's biggest loss (despite relatively positive reviews).
As it currently stands, here is the list of Star Wars movies and their respective box office takings to give you an idea of where The Mandalorian and Grogu is polling:
- Episode VII: The Force Awakens - $2.07 billion
- Episode VIII: The Last Jedi - $1.33 billion
- Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker - $1.07 billion
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $1.05 billion
- Episode I: The Phantom Menace - $1.04 billion
- Episode III: Revenge of the Sith - $905 million
- Episode IV: A New Hope - $775 million
- Episode II: Attack of the Clones - $653 million
- Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back - $550 million
- Episode VI: Return of the Jedi - $482 million
- Solo: A Star Wars Story - $393 million
- The Mandalorian and Grogu (ongoing) - $300 million
It didn't always have to be this way and you might consider it a bit premature to make this assumption considering that The Mandalorian and Grogu is only three weeks old, but the signs are there. While it's true that, had the movie sustained the momentum of its above-expectations opening weekend, it would have successfully outpaced Solo but that Week 2 dropoff put a dent in that Beskar armor that made it hard for the film to recover from.
Even so, sustained legs could have helped it scale the relatively low bar set by Solo but when it suddenly began losing the daily box office battle to the critically-acclaimed, low-budget horror Obsession (which opened with only a fraction of what Mando and Grogu did), the writing was on the wall. The positive word of mouth for that movie has allowed it to gain massive increases in daily box office takings that could see it ultimately outlast the Star Wars movie.
So, what went wrong for The Mandalorian and Grogu? Honestly, it was just the perfect storm of events that worked against it. The most obvious culprit here is the fact that Disney and Lucasfilm decided to use a veteran TV series to relaunch a legendary movie series. We've known The Mandalorian and Baby Yoda for nearly a decade at this point and the response to the third season of The Mandalorian was mixed.
The Star Wars franchise itself has also been somewhat diluted by the amount of Disney Plus shows over the past seven years, with many fans feeling less of a need to watch Star Wars on the big screen if they can eventually get it on the small one. This took a long-term problem for the industry in general and accelerated it, because we all know that The Mandalorian and Grogu will end up on Disney Plus anyway. If Star Wars fans had to wait ridiculously long for a potential fourth season on the streamer, they could probably hold out for a few more months if they don't want to go to theaters.. This - coupled with the unexpected surge of low-budget horror - completely overtook the movie's hopes for a long-term box office run.
Mando and Grogu is still a long-term success story
As we've said before, there is a silver lining. Although The Mandalorian and Grogu is underperforming and will likely land below Solo, making it the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie of all time, it won't lose the studio as much money as the 2018 catastrophe. Solo had a ridiculously high budget of $300 - $400 million so its breakeven point was always going to be a tall task - too tall for its eventual $393 million takings.
The Mandalorian and Grogu, however, cost little more than a season of The Mandalorian, with estimates placing its cost at around $144 million (plus around $100 million for marketing). Its box office takings have already allowed it to clear that and that doesn't even account for the merchandise money that Grogu makes for Disney. And when it does arrive on Disney Plus, it will enjoy a similar bump to that of a potential fourth season of The Mandalorian, allowing it to enjoy long-term success in a way that Solo couldn't.
In that sense, you can think of the film like a TV movie that just so happened to enjoy a massive theatrical run, which will ultimately serve as a huge marketing tool for the Disney Plus streaming service. Even if all of the Star Wars fans didn't come back to the theaters as Lucasfilm had hoped, they will meet Din Djarin and Grogu where they are at: Disney Plus.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is in theaters now.
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