Captain Marvel is roaring into theaters and promises to bring a galaxy-sized box office opening! But just how big will it really be?
Captain Marvel flies into theaters shortly as the last Marvel Cinematic Universe film to be released, before Avengers: Endgame releases. Many will remember that Avengers: Infinity War ended with Nick Fury sending out a signal to Captain Marvel and her origin film will delve into their relationship and how she came to be the godlike hero she has become. With so much excitement lets look at Captain Marvels box office projections for opening weekend and beyond.
Now it is interesting how varied the tracking has been for Captain Marvels opening weekend, Deadline currently has the film opening at just at or under $100 million opening weekend. Whereas Box Office Pro is saying that they predict Captain Marvel to open to a boffo $160 million.
Now Deadline while expecting a large opening also warns that outside of Iron Man and Black Panther no other MCU origin film has ever cracked a $100 million opening, now while Captain Marvel‘s massive view count on its trailer is referenced as a reason for a large opening, this cant always be taken at face value.
Youtube advertising is used by major corporations like Disney and the more you pay the more Youtube advertises the video and the more views you get. So with that information, the high view count of the trailer could simply be due to a much higher spending campaign on Disney’s part. We just don’t know, Box Office Pro’s numbers are very simply overblown, there is no evidence that Captain Marvel will break out like Black Panther, and women while excited for the film don’t seem to be mobilizing in the same way that African Americans did.
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That being said, Captain Marvel looks to be shaping up to be another successful film in the MCU, with a budget of around $160 million any opening north of $75 million will be considered a success. Now not everything is rosy for the newest hero of the MCU, Captain Marvel more then any other MCU film has been mired in some controversy, mostly due to the statements of its star Brie Larson. While not inherently damaging, it has resulted in almost all of the recent news regarding Captain Marvel being negative or talking about the polarizing statements.
This controversy does seem to have hurt the film slightly as many trackers were predicting an opening north of $140 million and those have settled to $100 million in the recent months, Disney and Marvel like to keep their films accessible for all and as non-controversial as possible, so this may or may not hurt the Larson led film. Another issue is how unpredictable tracking has been over the last few years, with Glass being a victim of overhyped tracking, will Captain Marvel live up to its tracking? Only time will tell.
That being said, MCU films have a tremendous amount of good will, and thus it ensures a somewhat large opening for all its films, thus my prediction for Captain Marvel’s opening is around $90-95 million, or right around where Wonder Woman landed in 2017. Most average MCU films have a 2.5-ish multiple which would get Captain Marvel somewhere around $230-300 million domestically.
Now, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol 1 earned $440 million overseas and Thor: Ragnarok earned $538 million overseas, so a guess of somewhere in there for Captain Marvel seems right, she is not a well-known hero so numbers like Civil War or Iron Man 3 are out of the question. So an overseas take of $485 million and a domestic take of $300 million would give Captain Marvel a marvelous $785-800 million worldwide. Which would be a big win for Disney and the MCU.
Do you agree with these numbers? How much do you think Captain Marvel will earn? Let us know in the comments below!