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Disney admits defeat after The Mandalorian and Grogu box office failure

The Mandalorian and Grogu made box office history, which prompted Disney and Lucasfilm to fast-track its next release window. Unfortunately, that's not a good thing.
Din Djarin and Grogu in The Mandalorian and Grogu
Din Djarin and Grogu in The Mandalorian and Grogu | Photo by Nicola Goode / Lucasfilm

It's been quite the whirlwind for The Mandalorian and Grogu. The two most successful Star Wars characters in the history of the Disney Plus streaming service couldn't completely translate that success to the silver screen. There is no denying that there is still a demand for these juggernaut characters but that wasn't enough to make the big screen debut the resounding box office success that it likely would have been just a few years ago.

The film has officially set records as the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie of all time, coming in even behind the disastrous Solo: A Star Wars Story. Although it never flopped in the same way that the 2018 film did (due to its wisely lower budget), it did spend the vast majority of its box office run underperforming expectations (despite an unexpectedly higher opening weekend).

The Mandalorian and Grogu finished its box office run with $345 million against a budget of $165 million (which, again, doesn't look that bad all things considered), but with a break-even point of around $500 - $600 million, the theatrical run just couldn't get it into the green. Now, Disney and Lucasfilm are taking extra measures to get it closer to that a little quicker.

The Mandalorian and Grogu lands on digital platforms earlier than it should have

This is the way... to offset some of those losses. The Mandalorian and Grogu has officially arrived on digital platforms as Lucasfilm and Disney released it earlier than many of us had been anticipating. With that in mind, the film is now available to purchase on platforms such as Apple TV, Prime Video Store, Fandango at Home, and more, officially arriving 61 days after its theatrical debut. This is pretty telling in and of itself.

Modern blockbusters would have the option to release on digital streaming services for purchase after a 60-day theatrical window, but many studios often delay it further so that they can extend their respective movie's time in theaters. Disney and Lucasfilm opted not to do this with The Mandalorian and Grogu.

To put that in perspective, here is a list of recent Disney underperformers that were also immediately released just outside of their theatrical-exclusive windows to give you an idea of where The Mandalorian and Grogu ranks among them:

  • Ella McCay (2025) - 35 days
  • Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023) - 60 days
  • Thunderbolts (2025) - 60 days
  • The Fantastic Four: First Steps (2025) - 60 days
  • The Mandalorian and Grogu (2026) - 61 days
  • Tron: Ares (2026) - 62 days
  • Wish (2023) - 62 days
  • The Marvels (2023) - 67 days

All of those fellow Disney movies either underperformed or significantly flopped, so the studio chose not to extend their respective theatrical runs and instead hoped to recoup some of the losses through digital sales. While Marvel movies like Thunderbolts* weren't too far away from their breakeven point, and The Fantastic four: First Steps had safely just crossed it, other films like Tron: Ares or even Marvel's own The Marvels were huge box office failures that the studio needed to start making the money back from as soon as possible. Early digital releases would help them get closer to that goal, even if they will likely never achieve it for some.

The Mandalorian and Grogu in Lucasfilm's THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU
(L-R) The Mandalorian and Grogu in Lucasfilm's THE MANDALORIAN AND GROGU | Photo courtesy of Lucasfilm

For The Mandalorian and Grogu, it became increasingly clear that this would be the case after that catastrophic 70% drop that it experienced during its second week of release - which completely undercut its overperformance in its opening weekend and prevented it from forming any real kind of legs through the summer.

In another year, a Star Wars movie might have been able to sustain itself for a few more weeks through the summer, but the general franchise familiarity (due to the overexposure of Star Wars via the multitude of Disney Plus shows) and the crowded landscape this particular summer (with the likes of Disclosure Day, Supergirl, Toy Story 5, Minions and Monsters, The Odyssey, and now Spider-Man: Brand New Day all generating buzz over the past few months) just made it impossible to stand out.

All that being said, the thing that may have hindered its box office performance could ultimately be what brings it long-term success. We mentioned franchise familiarity and it's true; ever since the launch of Disney Plus, Star Wars has built a new era for itself away from the Skywalker Saga. It's become a staple of the small screen, with the three seasons of The Mandalorian only being a fraction of Dave Filoni's Mando-Verse. And, eventually, The Mandalorian and Grogu will join them.

While the idea of watching Star Wars at home may have turned viewers off going to the cinema to see their favorite TV characters, the film's inevitable arrival on Disney Plus is likely to drive a host of new and returning subscribers to the platform. And if Disney and Lucasfilm are anticipating that this will be the case, it wouldn't be too surprising if they extended the digital window for as long as possible to ensure that as many people purchase it as possible, before reinvigorating interest for a third time by ultimately releasing it on Disney Plus.

The Mandalorian and Grogu might have the last laugh after all.

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