Just over a month after it arrived in movie theaters, The Mandalorian and Grogu has made Star Wars history at the box office. The film, released over Memorial Day weekend, had quite the troublesome theatrical run, underperforming, particularly significantly when considering the franchise that it belongs to - despite overperforming on its opening weekend. It's a conundrum that really highlights how major franchise blockbusters are beginning to struggle in today's day and age of too much choice and, well, streaming.
The film is a sequel to the three seasons of The Mandalorian TV series, which has become a global phenomenon since it premiered on Disney Plus in 2019 - launching Pedro Pascal (and Grogu himself) into the pop-culture history books. But the movie couldn't match that success and, as a result, Star Wars' return to the movies - after a seven year hiatus - didn't have the triumph that Lucasfilm hoped it would. Unfortunately, it has ended up making a completely different kind of history for the franchise because of this.
The Mandalorian and Grogu officially set to become the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie ever
This is not the way. After months of predictions, hopes and dreams for what Mando and Grogu could deliver in their big screen debuts, The Mandalorian and Grogu is now officially set to finish its box office run as the lowest-grossing movie in the Star Wars franchise. While there was hope that the film might avoid this fate (albeit by the skin of its teeth), the day-to-day numbers from its second week made that impossible to achieve. The past couple of weeks of its overall run have simply confirmed as much.
Those optics were never going to be a good sign for the franchise - and there are some extenuating circumstances here - but the real story that the naysayers will likely cling onto is the fact that it couldn't even surpass the infamous box office bomb Solo: A Star Wars Story - despite featuring two very well-known, beloved franchise characters.
Based on the film's current takings (which aren't expected to grow much more before the end of its run), here is a list of the Star Wars movies and the lifetime grosses that each of them made at the box office to give you a perspective of how far behind them The Mandalorian and Grogu really is:
- Episode VII: The Force Awakens - $2.071 billion
- Episode VIII: The Last Jedi - $1.334 billion
- Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker - $1.077 billion
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $1.059 billion
- Episode I: The Phantom Menace - $1.047 billion
- Episode III: Revenge of the Sith - $905.6 million
- Episode IV: A New Hope - $775.4 million
- Episode II: Attack of the Clones - $653.8 million
- Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back - $550 million
- Episode VI: Return of the Jedi - $482 million
- Solo: A Star Wars Story - $393 million
- The Mandalorian and Grogu - $336.6 million
It was hoped that it wouldn't come to this and, for a moment, it didn't have to. The film slightly overperformed in its opening weekend, bringing in $165 million worldwide and coming in above expectations by a decent margin. If it had managed to turn that early buzz into relatively long-lasting legs, it would have surpassed Solo's $393 million. Even a portion of those who were predicting that it would come in on the lower end of its projections thought it might be in with a chance of surpassing Solo. And then Week 2 happened.
After the opening weekend, The Mandalorian and Grogu's day-to-day momentum completely collapsed, resulting in a 72% drop in its second weekend that it simply never recovered from. The film began losing the daily box office battles with lower-budget horror flicks Obsession and Backrooms - which were enjoying an immense wave of positive feedback and overall strong word-of-mouth - and has now ultimately been bested by both at the domestic box office. And it's about to lose the battle to both on the global side of things too.
Obsession has already surpassed Mando and Grogu with flying colors, with its current takings at $380 million worldwide. Backrooms is almost there, too, with $333 million. While all three have significantly aged into their box office runs by now, both indie horror flicks still carry vastly more buzz than The Mandalorian and Grogu, meaning that the Lucasfilm / Disney film has no chance of stopping that. It won't catch up with Obsession, which means it simply cannot surpass Solo in its box office run. And with the end of that box office run nigh, the film's fate as a box office disappointment is sealed - which is eyebrow-raising considering how expectations were tapered to allow for underperformance already.
That's the silver lining (or Beskar armor) to the story: Disney and Lucasfilm planned for a potential underperformance relatively well. The Mandalorian and Grogu cost only a shadow more than a regular season of The Mandalorian would have cost, so they were able to keep the budget lower thanks to pre-existing sets and a more focused storyline. This set the film up in good stead regardless because, despite the fact that it didn't make as much as Solo, its $165 million budget is far, far below Solo's massive $300 million price tag - so it won't lose money like that one and will ultimately take Lucasfilm and Disney into the green in a way that Solo couldn't.
Mando and Grogu may have earned back its budget in one weekend, but it would have needed to earn around $500 - $600 million to break even. Although the movie will never accomplish that in its box office run, merchandising (Grogu remains incredibly marketable for Lucasfilm) and the film's eventual arrival on Disney Plus (where The Mandalorian belongs), will make it a long-term success story. Those does, however, pose the question: Was it worth replacing the planned fourth season of The Mandalorian with a feature-film instead? There are arguments for both sides, but now that The Mandalorian and Grogu is the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie ever made, the answer is certainly leaning towards a No.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is still in theaters.
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