It's been a rough road for The Mandalorian and Grogu at the box office. The movie that was supposed to relaunch the Star Wars franchise's hopes and dreams at the box office has now fallen victim to the very thing that put the Lucasfilm saga's movie aspirations on ice in the first place. This comes despite the action blockbuster opening above expectations.
Yes, Mando and Grogu's triumphant return wasn't as triumphant as it probably would have been if the studios had just went ahead with original plans to make a fourth season of the Disney Plus series (The Mandalorian) instead but there was hope that it would manage to sustain some of that original momentum of its opening weekend. Unfortunately, those hopes seem so far, far away at this point.
The Mandalorian and Grogu officially outgrossed at the US box office by Obsession and Backrooms
In a sentence that genuinely nobody expected to be writing, Star Wars has been outgrossed by indie horror at the domestic box office. Yes, The Mandalorian and Grogu has been bested in the US by both Backrooms and Obsession as the latter two films history-making runs have eclipsed the Star Wars flick - despite it having a pretty significant headstart at the box office.
It was Obsession that pulled it off first, as the indie horror film breezed past Mando and Grogu's $168 million total with its own insane takings of $206 million. Backrooms has now done the same, pulling in $168.8 million - a digit that will undoubtedly rise significantly after this weekend. Needless to say, that's pretty darn spectacular considering that Obsession had a budget of only $750,000 and Backrooms cost $10 million. Those films had significantly less to prove than The Mandalorian and Grogu - which carried a price tag of $165 million - and have managed to overperform expectations to such an extent that they have overtaken it domestically.
To put that in perspective, here are the films' current domestic takings and where they currently rank amongst each other:
- Obsession - $206 million
- Backrooms - $168.8 million
- The Mandalorian and Grogu - $168 million
What's even more impressive, perhaps, is that Obsession is now flirting with the possibility of overtaking Mando and Grogu worldwide, too. With that in mind, here is how each of the films currently stand globally, and just how far away Obsession and Backrooms are from replicating their domestic records internationally:
- The Mandalorian and Grogu - $317 million
- Obsession - $300 million
- Backrooms - $272 million
As you can see above, the Star Wars film is currently at around $317 million globally, while Obsession's global takings currently stand at $300 million. Considering that the horror flick is sustaining momentum at an incredible rate, it's extremely likely that it will overtake Din Djarin and Baby Yoda. Again, insane for an indie horror with a production budget of less than $1 million. And at $272 million worldwide and counting, Backrooms may be about to do the same.
What really went wrong for The Mandalorian and Grogu
While it's easy to throw shade at the Star Wars franchise here over what is shaping up to be an unprecedented loss, the truth is that there are two stories in play here. One is the overperformance of Obsession, which ultimately influenced the overperformance of Backrooms. Both low-budget indie horrors were praised for reinventing the wheel and reviving interest in a genre that many felt had run out of road. This was obviously unprecedented and body could for foresaw this coming. And then, there is the other side of the coin.
Star Wars fans had repeatedly questioned Disney and Lucasfilm's decision to replace The Mandalorian season 4 with a feature-film instead. Star Wars' last hurrah at the box office led to the notorious flop Solo: A Star Wars Story, which put the franchise's post-Skywalker Saga plans on ice. And with that, they made the successful piviot to streaming with The Mandalorian.
But it's not 2019 anymore and, despite the success of the beloved series, the overall impact of streaming has watered down major movie franchises, particularly Star Wars and Marvel, due to there simply being too many Disney Plus shows - many of which weren't all that well-received. The Mandalorian season 3 divided audiences while the two-year waits for each season wore audiences down. So, the idea of reviving the franchise's big screen days with The Mandalorian and Grogu - in spite of how popular these two characters are - was still questionable at best.
Still, though, we're talking about Star Wars here - and, for a moment, that showed. The film did defy expectations briefly, coming in above projections for a very solid opening weekend of $165 million globally. It earned back its budget right out of the gate and set it on a course for breaking even. At that point it looked like this was very much the way. But by mid-week, it became clear that it was the wrong way for Mando and Grogu.
The film suffered a catastrophic 70% decline in Week 2 - taking a known blockbuster trend and still coming in below expectations. While that would have always made a significant dent in its overall box office earnings, it could have clawed its way to profitability if the numbers had held steady (Marvel Studios' The Fantastic Four: First Steps lost momentum with a Week 2 drop but still maintained enough momentum to break even in the long run) but it wasn't to be. The film simply didn't develop box office legs, meaning that there was no sustained long-term momentum; its daily-takings continued to decline.
It's oddly ironic because the film will ultimately make Disney money via both merchandise sales (Grogu generates a lot of money on that front) and Disney Plus subscriptions whenever it makes is streaming debut - so The Mandalorian and Grogu will likely have streaming legs (as Disney Plus is the home of The Mandalorian), it just couldn't find them theatrically.
The silver lining here is that Disney and Lucasfilm kept the budget modest to avoid a repeat of the Solo situation, making it easier for Mando and Grogu to get to the green. Even though the 2026 film is set to be the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie of all time, it won't lose anywhere near as much as the massively-budgeted Solo during its theatrical run - and, like we said above, there are other ways for Disney and Lucasfilm to ensure the film is profitable long-term.
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