It's safe to say that The Mandalorian and Grogu is one of the most anticipated movies of the year. Now, that sentence comes with its own caveats, as we will discuss shortly, but you can't argue with the fact that there is a lot of excitement for the return of Mando and Grogu. Oh yeah, and it's Star Wars we're talking about here, so the audience is there.
That being said, there are some questions about just how much of an audience will go and see the upcoming film. That's both related to this particular movie, while also being an ongoing question when it comes to the Star Wars franchise itself. This new update regarding its projected release numbers aren't the strongest of indicators that those worries aren't warranted.
The Mandalorian and Grogu tracking to earn lowest opening for a Disney Star Wars movie on release weekend
According to box office forecasters Box Office Theory, The Mandalorian and Grogu is early tracking to earn around $70 - $85 million in its opening domestic weekend at the box office. That would set a record as the lowest opening for a Star Wars movie during the Disney era, coming in far, far, far behind all three films from the Skywalker Saga.
2015's The Force Awakens opened to $247. 9 million domestically, while 2017's The Last Jedi opened to $220 million, and 2019's trilogy-closer The Rise of Skywalker debuted with $177 million. Granted, those three films were part of the nine-film-long Skywalker Saga, released prior to the pandemic, and well before the highs and lows of the franchise's Disney Plus era, so it's easy to see why they did so well. And with that in mind, Star Wars fans are understandably defending The Mandalorian and Grogu's early tracking numbers as it's a very different movie, with different targets and goals, released at a very different time.
Still, though, there are fans out there hoping that it will perform better than that, as the fate of the franchise beyond its TV era is relying on that cinematic success. It's rather ironic that it's all resting on the franchise's biggest TV stars. The Mandalorian is one of the most successful Star Wars shows of all, kicking off the saga's Disney Plus era back in 2019. It has run for three seasons thus far, with Lucasfilm's decision to pivot to the silver screen instead of producing a fourth season leaving fans surprised. But it puts pressure on Pedro Pascal's Din Djarin and the character formerly known as Baby Yoda.
With that in mind, the film needs to succeed in order for this particular part of the franchise to carry on. It's unclear at this point in time whether The Mandalorian season 4 will happen at some point down the line or, if the film spinoff is successful, the story could continue in another sequel. Dave Filoni has had long-term plans to wrap up the stories of the Mando-Verse with its own crossover movie, bringing together the casts of The Mandalorian, Ahsoka, The Book of Boba Fett and Skeleton Crew. If The Mandalorian and Grogu struggles, that could put an end to those plans.
All that being said, there is something that is working in the upcoming film's favor: Its relatively low budget. The Mandalorian and Grogu reportedly has a budget of $130 - $166 million. If the domestic opening weekend numbers are even on the lower end of that early tracking prediction, there's a pretty strong chance that it could still clear that number when you factor in international numbers on the weekend of release. Remember, Star Wars is a globally successful franchise and The Mandalorian is a globally successful series. There's little reason to think that the international market won't make up a huge part of the film's worldwide takings. And with the film likely having a breakeven point of around $300 - $320 million, it should turn a profit.
Of course, at this point in time, this is all just conjecture. Official box office projections will be made once tickets for the upcoming release go on sale. And considering that May 22 marks the beginning of Memorial Day Weekend, there is a pretty strong chance that The Mandalorian and Grogu will come in on the higher end of any expectations. We're hoping this is the case... because this is the way for more Star Wars stories to be told.
The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives in movie theaters on May 22, 2026.