It's been quite the run for The Mandalorian and Grogu. Lucasfilm's first Star Wars movie in seven years hasn't even been in theaters for a month yet and it has unfortunately lose the box office buzz conversation pretty quickly. Although the film did slightly overperform in its opening weekend, it has continued to suffer major drops throughout the weeks since, not helped by buzzier releases that have included low-budget horror phenomenons and Steven Spielberg's sci-fi comeback.
All that being said, the Pedro Pascal-led blockbuster has held steady enough on a global scale at least, which has allowed it to surpass a milestone that many genuinely thought it wouldn't, Unfortunately for it, it will probably be the last major one that it can reach before its box office run comes to a close.
The Mandalorian and Grogu surpasses $300 million worldwide
It's official: The Mandalorian and Grogu has surpassed $300 million at the worldwide box office. The Star Wars film found the way to the milestone this weekend, adding another $4.7 million domestically to bring its US total to 165.7 million and its global total to around $315 million. And with that, the space opera sci-fi has likely made it to its last major milestone before it concludes its box office run.
As you probably tell from the weekend numbers above, the film's daily takings have collapsed well beyond what a film should be experiencing just three weeks into its box office run. Its domestic takings this weekend were down a further 53% over the previous three-day weekend frame and it doesn't appear that we're running out of road when it comes to the steep drops. Mando and Grogu also fell out of the Top 5 this weekend, coming in No. 6 behind the likes of Masters of the Universe (which also suffered harsh drops), Backrooms, Scary Movie, Obsession, Disclosure Day.
The Mandalorian and Grogu always had a bit of an uphill battle ahead of it when it came to succeeding at the box office. The Star Wars franchise is in a similar - but worse - position to that of Marvel Studios in that the overexposure of the stories from that galaxy so far, far away on the Disney Plus streaming service have diluted the brand somewhat. Too many TV shows - of varying critical receptions - made Star Wars less must-see on the big screen. The fact that Lucasfilm and Disney then went with a pair of highly-recognizable TV characters for the first Star Wars movie in seven years probably didn't help either.
While Din Djarin and Grogu are extremely popular, the third season of The Mandalorian wasn't all that well-received, so opting against a fourth season in favor of a standalone movie that offered little value to the overall franchise - although it is admittedly a very enjoyable movie - probably wasn't the best idea. If Star Wars fans can get Mando and Gorgu on Disney Plus, they are probably going to wait to watch them on Disney Plus (when the film inevitably arrives on the streamer).
Why The Mandalorian and Grogu still won't break even
Unfortunately, The Mandalorian and Gorgu's $300 million milestone is the silver lining of a story that doesn't bode well for the movie. Although it is a very good thing that it managed to reach that milestone given its continued week-over-week declines, it still won't be enough for the film to break even at the box office. Long-term and in general? Perhaps, but it won't happen during its theatrical run.
Now, Disney and Lucasfilm were prepared for this. The film's budget was a modest-compared-to-other-Star-Wars-movies $165 million (which is exactly what it has made in the US alone). When you factor in the State of California's tax credits system, that brings its cost down to $144 million (as it earned $21 million in tax credits through production there). When you factor in the $100 million Disney spent on marketing, it brings the cost up to $244 million. So, yes, on that front, The Mandalorian and Grogu has generated more money than was spent on making it. But when you remember that movie theaters take around half of the gross, the film's true break even point would be around $500 million - numbers that it unfortunately won't reach based on its current box office trajectory.
Speaking of trajectory, Mando and Grogu is on course to become the lowest-grossing Star Wars movie at the box office. The film still has a steep hill to climb if it wants to overcome Solo: A Star Wars Story's franchise-freezing $393 million from 2018. Although that film was a bigger box office failure because of its massive budget, there were hopes that a subfranchise as popular as The Mandalorian should have had no problem jumping over that obstacle.
That may well have been doable in an era before streaming when Star Wars was at the forefront of the movie scene. But without streaming, we wouldn't have had The Mandalorian at all, so we can't complain. The good news is that the film's successful merchandise sales (Grogu, a.k.a. Baby Yoda, continues to make Disney millions in merchandise) and the Disney Plus subscriptions that it will drive upon its arrival (essentially serving as The Mandalorian season 4 to those who have been waiting on new Mando and Grogu adventures but didn't go to the theaters to see it) will ultimately bring it into the green.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is in theaters now.
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